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MatchDaySync

Coventry v Aston Villa, Premier League, Sat, 12 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 15. Sat, 12 Dec 2026

CoventryHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Aston VillaAway
LLLLWLeague form, oldest to newestLDLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Coventry have 2 scored home results and Aston Villa 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Coventry at home: 0.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Aston Villa away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Coventry scored 0.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Aston Villa scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 5 pooled club appearances (20.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Coventry: 0 wins; Aston Villa: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Coventry at home and Aston Villa away.

Coventry at home

xG 1.31
  • Shots per match12.5
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match0.0

Aston Villa away

xG 1.12
  • Shots per match11.3
  • On target per match2.3
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Coventry
0.28
Expected goals, Aston Villa
1.26
Most likely score
0-1 (27%)
Three or more goals
20%
Both clubs score
17%
Coventry score at least once
24%
Aston Villa score at least once
72%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Coventry win–
Draw–
Aston Villa win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Coventry goals, columns are Aston Villa goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
021%27%17%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%
16%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
21%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Coventry 5 matches, Aston Villa 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Coventry wins
0
Draws
1
Aston Villa wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Coventry clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Aston Villa clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Coventry v Aston VillaWed, 16 Sept 2026 · EFL Cup 2026-271–3HT 1–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Coventry at homeDWWLLL
Aston Villa awayLLDWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Coventry at home, Aston Villa away
  • 17%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 3.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 8.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 3.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Coventry at home, Aston Villa away
Coventry (home)Aston Villa (away)
19Position14
LLLast 5, oldest to newestLDW
2Played3
0.00Points per match1.33
0%Win %33%
0.00Scored / match1.00
3.00Conceded / match2.00
3.00Avg total goals3.00
0%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets33%
100%Failed to score67%
1.31xG for1.12
1.77xG against1.97

Half by half

CoventryAston Villa
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.501st half conceded / match1.33
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.67
  • 2.502nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 50%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.533%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Coventry at home, Aston Villa away, this season.

Goals

CoventryAston Villa
  • 0.00Scored / match1.00
  • 3.00Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.00Match total / match3.00
  • 0%Scored 1+33%
  • 0%Scored 2+33%
  • 100%Conceded 1+67%
  • 50%Conceded 2+67%
  • 50%Match over 1.567%
  • 50%Match over 2.567%
  • 50%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

CoventryAston Villa
  • 12.50Shots for11.33
  • 14.00Shots against17.33
  • 4.50On target for2.33
  • 4.50On target against5.67
  • 0%Shot conversion9%
  • 1.31xG for1.12
  • 1.77xG against1.97

Corners

CoventryAston Villa
  • 5.50Corners for2.33
  • 2.50Corners against6.33
  • 8.00Match total8.67
  • 100%Over 7.533%
  • 0%Over 8.533%
  • 0%Over 9.533%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.533%

Cards

CoventryAston Villa
  • 1.00Cards for2.00
  • 2.00Cards against1.67
  • 3.00Match total3.67
  • 50%Over 2.567%
  • 50%Over 3.533%
  • 50%Over 4.533%
  • 0%Over 5.533%
  • 10.00Fouls committed9.67

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
12Man United606
13Nott'm Forest5-15
14Aston Villa6-55
15Crystal Palace5-54
16Sunderland6-64
17Bournemouth6-63
18Tottenham6-63
19Coventry5-93
20Fulham6-42
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.