Crawley Town vs Oldham stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 28. Sat, 30 Jan 2027

vKick-off 15:00 UTC

DLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Crawley Town have 4 scored home results and Oldham 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Crawley Town at home: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Oldham away: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Crawley Town scored 0.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Oldham scored 0.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Crawley Town: 2 wins; Oldham: 5 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Crawley Town at home and Oldham away.

Crawley Town at home

xG 1.01

Shots per match11.7
On target per match3.3
Goals per match0.8

Oldham away

xG 1.47

Shots per match14.3
On target per match3.0
Goals per match0.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Crawley Town: 1.40
Expected goals, Oldham: 1.21
Most likely score: 1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals: 48%
Both clubs score: 53%
Crawley Town score at least once: 75%
Oldham score at least once: 70%
Season sample: 8 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Crawley Town win–

Draw–

Oldham win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Crawley Town goals, columns are Oldham goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

07%9%5%2%1%

110%12%8%3%1%

27%9%5%2%1%

33%4%2%1%

41%1%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Crawley Town 8 matches, Oldham 9, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.4%	27.6%
2.5	43.1%	56.9%
3.5	26.7%	73.3%
4.5	10.3%	89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	31.0%	69.0%
2.5	7.8%	92.2%
3.5	1.7%	98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	61.5%	38.5%
10.5	47.1%	52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	98.1%	1.9%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	73.1%	26.9%
3.5	56.7%	43.3%
4.5	44.2%	55.8%
5.5	26.0%	74.0%
6.5	12.5%	87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Crawley Town wins

Draws

Oldham wins

Goals / meeting

3.80

38 goals in 10 meetings

Both scored

70%

7 of 10 meetings

Over 1.5

100%

10 of 10 meetings

Over 2.5

90%

9 of 10 meetings

Over 3.5

50%

5 of 10 meetings

Crawley Town clean sheets

10%

1 of 10 meetings

Oldham clean sheets

20%

2 of 10 meetings

Corners / meeting

9.80

10 with corner data

Cards / meeting

2.60

10 with card data

Oldham v Crawley TownSat, 28 Feb 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-262–0HT 1–0
Crawley Town v OldhamSat, 13 Dec 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-262–2HT 1–0
Oldham v Crawley TownSat, 7 May 2022 · EFL League Two 2021-223–3HT 2–2
Crawley Town v OldhamTue, 1 Mar 2022 · EFL League Two 2021-222–2HT 0–0
Crawley Town v OldhamMon, 5 Apr 2021 · EFL League Two 2020-211–4HT 0–2
Oldham v Crawley TownSat, 26 Sept 2020 · EFL League Two 2020-212–3HT 1–2
Crawley Town v OldhamSat, 7 Mar 2020 · EFL League Two 2019-203–0HT 1–0
Oldham v Crawley TownSat, 21 Dec 2019 · EFL League Two 2019-202–1HT 0–1
Crawley Town v OldhamSat, 9 Feb 2019 · EFL League Two 2018-190–3HT 0–0
Oldham v Crawley TownSat, 1 Sept 2018 · EFL League Two 2018-192–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Crawley Town at homeDLLLWD

Sat, 10 Octv Chesterfield2–2C ––– · Y –––
Tue, 6 Octv Bromley4–0C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 12 Septv Cheltenham1–3C 8–3 · Y 4–2
Sat, 29 Augv Bristol Rvs0–2C 2–4 · Y 3–4
Sat, 15 Augv Crewe0–1C 4–11 · Y 4–6
Sat, 2 Mayv Salford0–0C 3–11 · Y 1–0

Oldham awayLLLDLL

Sat, 19 Sept@ Rochdale0–2C 6–0 · Y 0–0
Sat, 5 Sept@ Tranmere0–2C 10–2 · Y 2–3
Tue, 1 Sept@ Fleetwood Town1–1C 4–7 · Y 0–1
Sat, 22 Aug@ Colchester1–2C 2–8 · Y 6–2
Sat, 8 Aug@ Stoke0–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 25 Apr@ Newport County2–3C 4–6 · Y 3–2

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Crawley Town at home, Oldham away

50%
Both teams scored
League 53%
4 + 4 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 91%
4 + 4 matches
88%
Over 1.5 goals
League 73%
4 + 4 matches
38%
Over 2.5 goals
League 43%
4 + 4 matches
25%
Over 3.5 goals
League 26%
4 + 4 matches
0%
Over 4.5 goals
League 10%
4 + 4 matches
2.5
Avg total goals
League 2.48
4 + 4 matches
88%
1st half over 0.5
League 66%
4 + 4 matches
25%
1st half over 1.5
League 31%
4 + 4 matches
10.2
Corners per match
League 10.11
3 + 4 matches
71%
Corners over 8.5
League 66%
3 + 4 matches
71%
Corners over 9.5
League 62%
3 + 4 matches
58%
Corners over 10.5
League 47%
3 + 4 matches
5.6
Cards per match
League 4.09
3 + 4 matches
75%
Cards over 3.5
League 57%
3 + 4 matches
75%
Cards over 4.5
League 44%
3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Crawley Town at home, Oldham away

Crawley Town (home)		Oldham (away)
24	Position	21
LLLD	Last 5, oldest to newest	LDLL
4	Played	4
0.25	Points per match	0.25
0%	Win %	0%
0.75	Scored / match	0.50
2.00	Conceded / match	1.75
2.75	Avg total goals	2.25
50%	Both scored	50%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	50%
1.01	xG for	1.47
2.21	xG against	1.39

Half by half

Crawley TownOldham

0.251st half scored / match0.50
1.251st half conceded / match0.50
0.502nd half scored / match0.00
0.752nd half conceded / match1.25
0%Leading at half-time50%
75%1st half over 0.5100%
50%1st half over 1.50%
75%2nd half over 0.5100%
25%2nd half over 1.525%
0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Crawley Town at home, Oldham away, this season.

Goals

Crawley TownOldham

0.75Scored / match0.50
2.00Conceded / match1.75
2.75Match total / match2.25
50%Scored 1+50%
25%Scored 2+0%
100%Conceded 1+100%
75%Conceded 2+75%
75%Match over 1.5100%
50%Match over 2.525%
50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

Crawley TownOldham

11.67Shots for14.25
18.00Shots against12.25
3.33On target for3.00
4.00On target against3.50
3%Shot conversion4%
1.01xG for1.47
2.21xG against1.39

Corners

Crawley TownOldham

4.67Corners for5.50
6.00Corners against4.25
10.67Match total9.75
67%Over 7.575%
67%Over 8.575%
67%Over 9.575%
67%Over 10.550%
33%Over 11.525%

Cards

Crawley TownOldham

3.67Cards for2.00
4.00Cards against1.50
7.67Match total3.50
100%Over 2.550%
100%Over 3.550%
100%Over 4.550%
100%Over 5.525%
8.33Fouls committed12.75

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
19	Colchester	9	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	-7	5

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.