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Crawley Town v Rotherham, EFL League Two, Sat, 27 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sat, 27 Feb 2027

Crawley TownHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
RotherhamAway
DLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestDWDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Crawley Town have 4 scored home results and Rotherham 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Crawley Town at home: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Rotherham away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Crawley Town scored 0.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Rotherham scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Crawley Town: 2 wins; Rotherham: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Crawley Town at home and Rotherham away.

Crawley Town at home

xG 1.01
  • Shots per match11.7
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.8

Rotherham away

xG 1.29
  • Shots per match11.6
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Crawley Town
1.55
Expected goals, Rotherham
1.45
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
58%
Both clubs score
60%
Crawley Town score at least once
79%
Rotherham score at least once
76%
Season sample
8 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Crawley Town win–
Draw–
Rotherham win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Crawley Town goals, columns are Rotherham goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%11%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%9%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Crawley Town 8 matches, Rotherham 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Crawley Town wins
0
Draws
0
Rotherham wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
5 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Crawley Town clean sheets
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Rotherham clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
8.50
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
4.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Rotherham v Crawley TownSat, 29 Mar 2025 · EFL League One 2024-250–4HT 0–1
  2. Crawley Town v RotherhamSat, 23 Nov 2024 · EFL League One 2024-251–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Crawley Town at homeDLLLWD
Rotherham awayLDLWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Crawley Town at home, Rotherham away
  • 45%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 45%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 35%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    4 + 5 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 10.4
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    3 + 5 matches
  • 73%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 53%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 5.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    3 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    3 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Crawley Town at home, Rotherham away
Crawley Town (home)Rotherham (away)
24Position20
LLLDLast 5, oldest to newestLDLWL
4Played5
0.25Points per match0.80
0%Win %20%
0.75Scored / match0.80
2.00Conceded / match1.20
2.75Avg total goals2.00
50%Both scored40%
0%Clean sheets20%
50%Failed to score40%
1.01xG for1.29
2.21xG against1.10

Half by half

Crawley TownRotherham
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.00
  • 1.251st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.80
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.560%
  • 50%1st half over 1.50%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Crawley Town at home, Rotherham away, this season.

Goals

Crawley TownRotherham
  • 0.75Scored / match0.80
  • 2.00Conceded / match1.20
  • 2.75Match total / match2.00
  • 50%Scored 1+60%
  • 25%Scored 2+20%
  • 100%Conceded 1+80%
  • 75%Conceded 2+40%
  • 75%Match over 1.540%
  • 50%Match over 2.540%
  • 50%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

Crawley TownRotherham
  • 11.67Shots for11.60
  • 18.00Shots against12.60
  • 3.33On target for3.00
  • 4.00On target against4.60
  • 3%Shot conversion7%
  • 1.01xG for1.29
  • 2.21xG against1.10

Corners

Crawley TownRotherham
  • 4.67Corners for4.20
  • 6.00Corners against6.00
  • 10.67Match total10.20
  • 67%Over 7.580%
  • 67%Over 8.580%
  • 67%Over 9.560%
  • 67%Over 10.540%
  • 33%Over 11.540%

Cards

Crawley TownRotherham
  • 3.67Cards for1.80
  • 4.00Cards against2.40
  • 7.67Match total4.20
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 100%Over 3.580%
  • 100%Over 4.520%
  • 100%Over 5.520%
  • 8.33Fouls committed10.80

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
18Shrewsbury10-611
19Colchester9-310
20Rotherham10-410
21Oldham9-48
22Port Vale8-58
23Northampton8-37
24Crawley Town8-75
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.