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Crewe v Swindon, EFL League Two, Tue, 13 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 41. Tue, 13 Apr 2027

CreweHome
vKick-off 18:45 UTC
SwindonAway
DDDWWLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Crewe have 5 scored home results and Swindon 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Crewe at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Swindon away: 0.20 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Crewe scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Swindon scored 0.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Crewe: 5 wins; Swindon: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Crewe at home and Swindon away.

Crewe at home

xG 1.16
  • Shots per match12.4
  • On target per match4.4
  • Goals per match1.6

Swindon away

xG 0.62
  • Shots per match7.6
  • On target per match1.6
  • Goals per match0.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Crewe
1.63
Expected goals, Swindon
0.41
Most likely score
1-0 (21%)
Three or more goals
33%
Both clubs score
27%
Crewe score at least once
80%
Swindon score at least once
33%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Crewe win–
Draw–
Swindon win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Crewe goals, columns are Swindon goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
013%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
121%9%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
217%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Crewe 10 matches, Swindon 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Crewe wins
3
Draws
2
Swindon wins
Goals / meeting
2.10
21 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Crewe clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Swindon clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.33
9 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.56
9 with card data
  1. Swindon v CreweSat, 10 Oct 2026 · EFL League Two 2026-270–1HT 0–0
  2. Swindon v CreweSat, 21 Feb 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-261–2HT 0–1
  3. Crewe v SwindonSat, 30 Aug 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-260–3HT 0–3
  4. Swindon v CreweSat, 11 Jan 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  5. Crewe v SwindonSat, 24 Aug 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  6. Crewe v SwindonSat, 13 Jan 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-242–1HT 1–1
  7. Swindon v CreweSat, 12 Aug 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-242–2HT 1–0
  8. Crewe v SwindonSat, 29 Apr 2023 · EFL League Two 2022-232–1HT 0–1
  9. Swindon v CreweSat, 19 Nov 2022 · EFL League Two 2022-230–1HT 0–1
  10. Swindon v CreweSat, 20 Feb 2021 · EFL League One 2020-212–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Crewe at homeWDDDWW
Swindon awayLDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Crewe at home, Swindon away
  • 40%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 13.2
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 3.3
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Crewe at home, Swindon away
Crewe (home)Swindon (away)
3Position17
WDDDWLast 5, oldest to newestDLLLL
5Played5
1.80Points per match0.20
40%Win %0%
1.60Scored / match0.00
1.00Conceded / match1.80
2.60Avg total goals1.80
80%Both scored0%
20%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score100%
1.16xG for0.62
1.69xG against1.85

Half by half

CreweSwindon
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 80%1st half over 0.540%
  • 60%1st half over 1.520%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 20%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Crewe at home, Swindon away, this season.

Goals

CreweSwindon
  • 1.60Scored / match0.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.80
  • 2.60Match total / match1.80
  • 100%Scored 1+0%
  • 40%Scored 2+0%
  • 80%Conceded 1+80%
  • 20%Conceded 2+40%
  • 80%Match over 1.540%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

CreweSwindon
  • 12.40Shots for7.60
  • 18.40Shots against18.60
  • 4.40On target for1.60
  • 5.20On target against6.40
  • 13%Shot conversion0%
  • 1.16xG for0.62
  • 1.69xG against1.85

Corners

CreweSwindon
  • 6.00Corners for3.20
  • 6.60Corners against10.60
  • 12.60Match total13.80
  • 100%Over 7.580%
  • 80%Over 8.580%
  • 80%Over 9.580%
  • 80%Over 10.580%
  • 80%Over 11.560%

Cards

CreweSwindon
  • 1.60Cards for2.20
  • 2.60Cards against0.20
  • 4.20Match total2.40
  • 60%Over 2.560%
  • 40%Over 3.50%
  • 40%Over 4.50%
  • 40%Over 5.50%
  • 11.60Fouls committed12.40

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Salford10519
2Barnet8918
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
19Colchester9-310
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.