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Dinamo Samarqand v Surkhon Termez, Uzbekistan Super League, Tue, 1 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 30. Tue, 1 Dec 2026

Dinamo SamarqandHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
Surkhon TermezAway
DDWLLLeague form, oldest to newestDWLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Dinamo Samarqand have 11 scored home results and Surkhon Termez 12 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Dinamo Samarqand at home: 1.55 points per match (11 measured matches); Surkhon Termez away: 1.25 points per match (12 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Dinamo Samarqand scored 1.55 per home match (11 measured matches); Surkhon Termez scored 0.83 away (12). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.34 per club appearance across 360 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 14 of 23 pooled club appearances (60.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Dinamo Samarqand: 1 wins; Surkhon Termez: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 180 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Dinamo Samarqand
1.50
Expected goals, Surkhon Termez
0.91
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
43%
Both clubs score
46%
Dinamo Samarqand score at least once
78%
Surkhon Termez score at least once
60%
Season sample
22 and 22 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Dinamo Samarqand win–
Draw–
Surkhon Termez win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Dinamo Samarqand goals, columns are Surkhon Termez goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%12%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.46 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Dinamo Samarqand 22 matches, Surkhon Termez 22, the league 180, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 180 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.0%28.0%
2.553.8%46.2%
3.528.6%71.4%
4.513.7%86.3%

First-half goals · 179 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.0%32.0%
1.537.0%63.0%
2.511.6%88.4%
3.56.1%93.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Dinamo Samarqand wins
0
Draws
0
Surkhon Termez wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Dinamo Samarqand clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Surkhon Termez clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Surkhon Termez v Dinamo SamarqandThu, 23 Jul 2026 · Uzbekistan Super League 20261–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Dinamo Samarqand at homeWWDDDW
Surkhon Termez awayLWDWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Dinamo Samarqand at home, Surkhon Termez away
  • 62%
    Both teams scored
    League 55%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 87%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 66%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 72%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 48%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 27%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 9%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.68
    11 + 12 matches
  • 57%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    11 + 12 matches
  • 31%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    11 + 12 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Dinamo Samarqand at home, Surkhon Termez away
Dinamo Samarqand (home)Surkhon Termez (away)
8Position12
WDDDWLast 5, oldest to newestWDWLD
11Played12
1.55Points per match1.25
36%Win %33%
1.55Scored / match0.83
1.27Conceded / match1.25
2.82Avg total goals2.08
82%Both scored42%
18%Clean sheets42%
9%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Dinamo SamarqandSurkhon Termez
  • 0.821st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.641st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.732nd half scored / match0.83
  • 0.642nd half conceded / match0.58
  • 36%Leading at half-time0%
  • 64%1st half over 0.550%
  • 46%1st half over 1.517%
  • 73%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 46%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 9%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Dinamo Samarqand at home, Surkhon Termez away, this season.

Goals

Dinamo SamarqandSurkhon Termez
  • 1.55Scored / match0.83
  • 1.27Conceded / match1.25
  • 2.82Match total / match2.08
  • 91%Scored 1+67%
  • 46%Scored 2+17%
  • 82%Conceded 1+58%
  • 46%Conceded 2+33%
  • 82%Match over 1.550%
  • 64%Match over 2.533%
  • 36%Match over 3.517%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Uzbekistan Super League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.