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Dinamo Tbilisi v FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo, Erovnuli Liga, Sat, 5 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 36. Sat, 5 Dec 2026

Dinamo TbilisiHome
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
FC Samgurali TskhaltuboAway
DDWWWLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Dinamo Tbilisi have 14 scored home results and FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo 14 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Dinamo Tbilisi at home: 1.57 points per match (14 measured matches); FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo away: 1.00 points per match (14 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Dinamo Tbilisi scored 1.50 per home match (14 measured matches); FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo scored 1.43 away (14). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 274 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 17 of 28 pooled club appearances (60.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Dinamo Tbilisi: 3 wins; FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 137 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Dinamo Tbilisi
2.54
Expected goals, FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo
1.12
Most likely score
2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
71%
Both clubs score
62%
Dinamo Tbilisi score at least once
92%
FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo score at least once
67%
Season sample
27 and 27 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Dinamo Tbilisi win–
Draw–
FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Dinamo Tbilisi goals, columns are FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
17%7%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%8%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.39 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Dinamo Tbilisi 27 matches, FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo 27, the league 137, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 20 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 137 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.7%27.3%
2.553.2%46.8%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.514.4%85.6%

First-half goals · 137 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.9%33.1%
1.538.1%61.9%
2.516.5%83.5%
3.55.8%94.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Dinamo Tbilisi wins
0
Draws
0
FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo wins
Goals / meeting
5.33
16 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo v Dinamo TbilisiSat, 19 Sept 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20262–3HT 2–2
  2. Dinamo Tbilisi v FC Samgurali TskhaltuboThu, 18 Jun 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20265–3HT 2–2
  3. FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo v Dinamo TbilisiSat, 25 Apr 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20261–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Dinamo TbilisiWDDWWW
FC Samgurali TskhaltuboWDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Dinamo Tbilisi at home, FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo away
  • 61%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 86%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 71%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 64%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 36%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    14 + 14 matches
  • 79%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 61%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 38%
    14 + 14 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Dinamo Tbilisi at home, FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo away
Dinamo Tbilisi (home)FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo (away)
3Position7
WLWDWLast 5, oldest to newestDWWLL
14Played14
1.57Points per match1.00
43%Win %29%
1.50Scored / match1.43
1.14Conceded / match2.29
2.64Avg total goals3.71
50%Both scored71%
29%Clean sheets21%
36%Failed to score21%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Dinamo TbilisiFC Samgurali Tskhaltubo
  • 0.931st half scored / match0.57
  • 0.711st half conceded / match1.36
  • 0.572nd half scored / match0.86
  • 0.432nd half conceded / match0.93
  • 29%Leading at half-time7%
  • 71%1st half over 0.586%
  • 57%1st half over 1.564%
  • 64%2nd half over 0.571%
  • 21%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 29%Scored in both halves36%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Dinamo Tbilisi at home, FC Samgurali Tskhaltubo away, this season.

Goals

Dinamo TbilisiFC Samgurali Tskhaltubo
  • 1.50Scored / match1.43
  • 1.14Conceded / match2.29
  • 2.64Match total / match3.71
  • 64%Scored 1+79%
  • 50%Scored 2+36%
  • 71%Conceded 1+79%
  • 29%Conceded 2+64%
  • 71%Match over 1.571%
  • 57%Match over 2.571%
  • 21%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Erovnuli Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.