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Dorking v Horsham FC, National League South, Sat, 26 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 23. Sat, 26 Dec 2026

DorkingHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Horsham FCAway
DDDWDLeague form, oldest to newestDDLDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Dorking have 5 scored home results and Horsham FC 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Dorking at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Horsham FC away: 1.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Dorking scored 2.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Horsham FC scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.41 per club appearance across 256 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 128 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Dorking
1.75
Expected goals, Horsham FC
1.12
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
55%
Both clubs score
56%
Dorking score at least once
83%
Horsham FC score at least once
67%
Season sample
11 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Dorking win–
Draw–
Horsham FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Dorking goals, columns are Horsham FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%6%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%10%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.38 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Dorking 11 matches, Horsham FC 10, the league 128, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.548.5%51.5%
3.530.8%69.2%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.1%26.9%
1.539.2%60.8%
2.514.6%85.4%
3.55.4%94.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Dorking at homeLWDDWW
Horsham FC awayDWDWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Dorking at home, Horsham FC away
  • 68%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 48%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 30%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.81
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Dorking at home, Horsham FC away
Dorking (home)Horsham FC (away)
9Position17
LLWDWLast 5, oldest to newestDWDD
5Played4
1.40Points per match1.50
40%Win %25%
2.00Scored / match1.00
2.00Conceded / match0.75
4.00Avg total goals1.75
60%Both scored75%
20%Clean sheets25%
20%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

DorkingHorsham FC
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.25
  • 1.401st half conceded / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.25
  • 0%Leading at half-time25%
  • 80%1st half over 0.575%
  • 60%1st half over 1.50%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 60%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Dorking at home, Horsham FC away, this season.

Goals

DorkingHorsham FC
  • 2.00Scored / match1.00
  • 2.00Conceded / match0.75
  • 4.00Match total / match1.75
  • 80%Scored 1+75%
  • 60%Scored 2+25%
  • 80%Conceded 1+75%
  • 60%Conceded 2+0%
  • 60%Match over 1.575%
  • 60%Match over 2.525%
  • 60%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League South matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.