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Duisburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf, 3. Liga, Fri, 19 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 24. Fri, 19 Feb 2027

DuisburgHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
Fortuna DusseldorfAway
WLWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWDWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Duisburg have 4 scored home results and Fortuna Dusseldorf 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Duisburg at home: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Fortuna Dusseldorf away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Duisburg scored 2.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Fortuna Dusseldorf scored 0.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.66 per club appearance across 152 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Duisburg: 0 wins; Fortuna Dusseldorf: 3 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 76 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Duisburg
1.71
Expected goals, Fortuna Dusseldorf
0.56
Most likely score
1-0 (18%)
Three or more goals
40%
Both clubs score
35%
Duisburg score at least once
82%
Fortuna Dusseldorf score at least once
43%
Season sample
8 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Duisburg win–
Draw–
Fortuna Dusseldorf win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Duisburg goals, columns are Fortuna Dusseldorf goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
118%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
215%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.72 goals) and away average (1.61 goals).

Sample. Duisburg 8 matches, Fortuna Dusseldorf 7, the league 76, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 76 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.579.5%20.5%
2.565.4%34.6%
3.541.0%59.0%
4.528.2%71.8%

First-half goals · 76 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.579.5%20.5%
1.547.4%52.6%
2.523.1%76.9%
3.511.5%88.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Duisburg wins
0
Draws
3
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins
Goals / meeting
3.33
10 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Duisburg clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Fortuna Dusseldorf clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.00
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
5.00
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Fortuna Dusseldorf v DuisburgSat, 12 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga 2026-272–1HT 0–0
  2. Duisburg v Fortuna DusseldorfSun, 11 Mar 2018 · 2. Bundesliga 2017-181–2HT 0–1
  3. Fortuna Dusseldorf v DuisburgMon, 2 Oct 2017 · 2. Bundesliga 2017-183–1HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Duisburg at homeLWLWWW
Fortuna Dusseldorf awayLLLDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Duisburg at home, Fortuna Dusseldorf away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 80%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 28%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 3.33
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 80%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Duisburg at home, Fortuna Dusseldorf away
Duisburg (home)Fortuna Dusseldorf (away)
1Position11
WWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDWL
4Played4
3.00Points per match1.00
100%Win %25%
2.75Scored / match0.75
0.75Conceded / match1.00
3.50Avg total goals1.75
50%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

DuisburgFortuna Dusseldorf
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.25
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.75
  • 2.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.25
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 50%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 75%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 50%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Duisburg at home, Fortuna Dusseldorf away, this season.

Goals

DuisburgFortuna Dusseldorf
  • 2.75Scored / match0.75
  • 0.75Conceded / match1.00
  • 3.50Match total / match1.75
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 100%Scored 2+25%
  • 50%Conceded 1+75%
  • 25%Conceded 2+25%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.550%
  • 25%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for 3. Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.