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Dumbarton v Elgin, Scottish League Two, Sat, 23 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

DumbartonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
ElginAway
LWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Dumbarton have 5 scored home results and Elgin 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Dumbarton at home: 2.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Elgin away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Dumbarton scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Elgin scored 2.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.70 per club appearance across 90 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Dumbarton: 3 wins; Elgin: 3 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Dumbarton at home and Elgin away.

Dumbarton at home

  • Shots per match7.6
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.6

Elgin away

  • Shots per match10.3
  • On target per match4.3
  • Goals per match2.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 45 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Dumbarton
1.38
Expected goals, Elgin
2.21
Most likely score
1-2 (9%)
Three or more goals
69%
Both clubs score
67%
Dumbarton score at least once
75%
Elgin score at least once
89%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Dumbarton win–
Draw–
Elgin win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Dumbarton goals, columns are Elgin goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%6%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
14%8%9%7%4%2%1%under 1%
23%6%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
31%3%3%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (2.02 goals) and away average (1.38 goals).

Sample. Dumbarton 9 matches, Elgin 9, the league 45, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.561.7%38.3%
3.542.6%57.4%
4.527.7%72.3%

First-half goals · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.580.9%19.1%
1.540.4%59.6%
2.519.1%80.9%
3.58.5%91.5%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.4%42.6%
9.553.2%46.8%
10.542.6%57.4%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.6%6.4%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.580.9%19.1%
3.557.4%42.6%
4.538.3%61.7%
5.525.5%74.5%
6.514.9%85.1%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Dumbarton wins
4
Draws
3
Elgin wins
Goals / meeting
2.20
22 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Dumbarton clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Elgin clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.70
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.80
10 with card data
  1. Dumbarton v ElginSat, 5 Sept 2026 · Scottish League Two 2026-272–1HT 1–0
  2. Elgin v DumbartonSat, 14 Mar 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Dumbarton v ElginSat, 24 Jan 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-262–2HT 0–0
  4. Elgin v DumbartonSat, 15 Nov 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-262–0HT 0–0
  5. Dumbarton v ElginSat, 16 Aug 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-261–1HT 0–1
  6. Dumbarton v ElginSat, 27 Apr 2024 · Scottish League Two 2023-242–2HT 1–2
  7. Elgin v DumbartonSat, 27 Jan 2024 · Scottish League Two 2023-240–1HT 0–1
  8. Dumbarton v ElginSat, 18 Nov 2023 · Scottish League Two 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  9. Elgin v DumbartonSat, 16 Sept 2023 · Scottish League Two 2023-242–0HT 1–0
  10. Elgin v DumbartonSat, 29 Apr 2023 · Scottish League Two 2022-231–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Dumbarton at homeDWWWWW
Elgin awayWDWLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Dumbarton at home, Elgin away
  • 45%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 98%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 42%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 27%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 3.40
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 82%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 35%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 8.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.96
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 53%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 42%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.5
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 58%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Dumbarton at home, Elgin away
Dumbarton (home)Elgin (away)
7Position4
WLWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWDLL
5Played4
2.40Points per match1.00
80%Win %25%
1.60Scored / match2.25
1.00Conceded / match1.75
2.60Avg total goals4.00
40%Both scored50%
40%Clean sheets25%
20%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

DumbartonElgin
  • 0.401st half scored / match1.25
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.75
  • 1.202nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 40%Leading at half-time50%
  • 80%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 20%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 40%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Dumbarton at home, Elgin away, this season.

Goals

DumbartonElgin
  • 1.60Scored / match2.25
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.75
  • 2.60Match total / match4.00
  • 80%Scored 1+75%
  • 60%Scored 2+50%
  • 60%Conceded 1+75%
  • 20%Conceded 2+75%
  • 80%Match over 1.5100%
  • 80%Match over 2.575%
  • 0%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

DumbartonElgin
  • 7.60Shots for10.25
  • 12.20Shots against7.50
  • 4.00On target for4.25
  • 4.40On target against4.75
  • 21%Shot conversion22%

Corners

DumbartonElgin
  • 5.80Corners for5.50
  • 3.40Corners against2.75
  • 9.20Match total8.25
  • 80%Over 7.550%
  • 60%Over 8.525%
  • 60%Over 9.525%
  • 20%Over 10.525%
  • 0%Over 11.525%

Cards

DumbartonElgin
  • 1.40Cards for2.00
  • 2.40Cards against1.25
  • 3.80Match total3.25
  • 100%Over 2.575%
  • 60%Over 3.575%
  • 20%Over 4.525%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 10.80Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Clyde9517
3Edinburgh City9415
4Elgin9914
5Spartans9212
6Kelty Hearts9-512
7Dumbarton9-512
8Forfar9-611
9Annan Athletic9-29
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.