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Dunfermline v Morton, Scottish Championship, Sat, 3 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 32. Sat, 3 Apr 2027

DunfermlineHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
MortonAway
WDWWDLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Dunfermline have 3 scored home results and Morton 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Dunfermline at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Morton away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Dunfermline scored 1.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Morton scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.03 per club appearance across 94 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Dunfermline: 5 wins; Morton: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Dunfermline at home and Morton away.

Dunfermline at home

  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match5.7
  • Goals per match1.3

Morton away

  • Shots per match7.8
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 47 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Dunfermline
1.73
Expected goals, Morton
0.37
Most likely score
1-0 (21%)
Three or more goals
35%
Both clubs score
25%
Dunfermline score at least once
82%
Morton score at least once
31%
Season sample
8 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Dunfermline win–
Draw–
Morton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Dunfermline goals, columns are Morton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
121%8%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
218%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
311%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
45%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.17 goals) and away average (0.89 goals).

Sample. Dunfermline 8 matches, Morton 10, the league 47, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 47 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.571.4%28.6%
2.530.6%69.4%
3.512.2%87.8%
4.54.1%95.9%

First-half goals · 47 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.3%32.7%
1.530.6%69.4%
2.58.2%91.8%
3.52.0%98.0%

Corners · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.0%50.0%
9.543.2%56.8%
10.531.8%68.2%

Yellow + red card events · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.5%4.5%
1.590.9%9.1%
2.570.5%29.5%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.536.4%63.6%
5.513.6%86.4%
6.56.8%93.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Dunfermline wins
2
Draws
3
Morton wins
Goals / meeting
1.60
16 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Dunfermline clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Morton clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.70
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.90
10 with card data
  1. Morton v DunfermlineSat, 19 Sept 2026 · Scottish Championship 2026-270–1HT 0–0
  2. Dunfermline v MortonSat, 4 Apr 2026 · Scottish Championship 2025-263–1HT 0–1
  3. Morton v DunfermlineTue, 17 Feb 2026 · Scottish Championship 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  4. Dunfermline v MortonSat, 22 Nov 2025 · Scottish Championship 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  5. Morton v DunfermlineSat, 2 Aug 2025 · Scottish Championship 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  6. Morton v DunfermlineFri, 2 May 2025 · Scottish Championship 2024-252–0HT 2–0
  7. Dunfermline v MortonSat, 1 Mar 2025 · Scottish Championship 2024-252–1HT 0–1
  8. Morton v DunfermlineSat, 21 Dec 2024 · Scottish Championship 2024-252–0HT 1–0
  9. Dunfermline v MortonSat, 19 Oct 2024 · Scottish Championship 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  10. Morton v DunfermlineSat, 23 Mar 2024 · Scottish Championship 2023-240–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Dunfermline at homeWWDLWW
Morton awayLLDLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Dunfermline at home, Morton away
  • 47%
    Both teams scored
    League 38%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 72%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 30%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 11%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 2%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.06
    3 + 5 matches
  • 73%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 43%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 30%
    3 + 5 matches
  • 11.4
    Corners per match
    League 9.69
    3 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 50%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 43%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 31%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 3.4
    Cards per match
    League 3.64
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 29%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Dunfermline at home, Morton away
Dunfermline (home)Morton (away)
6Position9
DWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDLLW
3Played5
2.33Points per match0.80
67%Win %20%
1.33Scored / match0.80
0.33Conceded / match1.60
1.67Avg total goals2.40
33%Both scored60%
67%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score40%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

DunfermlineMorton
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.332nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 33%Leading at half-time20%
  • 67%1st half over 0.580%
  • 67%1st half over 1.520%
  • 33%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 0%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Dunfermline at home, Morton away, this season.

Goals

DunfermlineMorton
  • 1.33Scored / match0.80
  • 0.33Conceded / match1.60
  • 1.67Match total / match2.40
  • 100%Scored 1+60%
  • 33%Scored 2+20%
  • 33%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+60%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

DunfermlineMorton
  • 11.00Shots for7.75
  • 4.00Shots against11.00
  • 5.67On target for3.25
  • 1.67On target against5.00
  • 12%Shot conversion7%

Corners

DunfermlineMorton
  • 7.00Corners for3.50
  • 6.00Corners against6.25
  • 13.00Match total9.75
  • 67%Over 7.550%
  • 67%Over 8.550%
  • 67%Over 9.550%
  • 67%Over 10.550%
  • 67%Over 11.550%

Cards

DunfermlineMorton
  • 2.33Cards for1.75
  • 1.00Cards against1.75
  • 3.33Match total3.50
  • 67%Over 2.575%
  • 33%Over 3.550%
  • 33%Over 4.525%
  • 33%Over 5.50%
  • 12.00Fouls committed9.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
4Livingston10313
5Inverness C9213
6Dunfermline8213
7Ayr10-112
8Arbroath10-811
9Morton10-114
10Queens Park9-114
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.