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Eibar v Eldense, La Liga 2, Sun, 7 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 29. Sun, 7 Mar 2027

EibarHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
EldenseAway
WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Ipurúa Municipal Stadium. Photo: Dilema, CC BY 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Eibar have 4 scored home results and Eldense 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Eibar at home: 2.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Eldense away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Eibar scored 2.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Eldense scored 0.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 182 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 8 pooled club appearances (25.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Eibar: 4 wins; Eldense: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Eibar at home and Eldense away.

Eibar at home

xG 1.49
  • Shots per match14.3
  • On target per match5.5
  • Goals per match2.0

Eldense away

xG 0.61
  • Shots per match11.5
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 91 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Eibar
2.33
Expected goals, Eldense
0.65
Most likely score
2-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
57%
Both clubs score
43%
Eibar score at least once
90%
Eldense score at least once
48%
Season sample
8 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Eibar win–
Draw–
Eldense win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Eibar goals, columns are Eldense goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%8%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
311%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.16 goals).

Sample. Eibar 8 matches, Eldense 9, the league 91, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 91 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.0%28.0%
2.549.5%50.5%
3.532.3%67.7%
4.517.2%82.8%

First-half goals · 91 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.9%30.1%
1.533.3%66.7%
2.516.1%83.9%
3.54.3%95.7%

Corners · 88 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.9%51.1%
9.537.8%62.2%
10.525.6%74.4%

Yellow + red card events · 88 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.9%1.1%
1.595.6%4.4%
2.586.7%13.3%
3.581.1%18.9%
4.560.0%40.0%
5.542.2%57.8%
6.530.0%70.0%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Eibar wins
0
Draws
1
Eldense wins
Goals / meeting
3.40
17 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Eibar clean sheets
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Eldense clean sheets
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.20
5 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.20
5 with card data
  1. Eldense v EibarSat, 19 Sept 2026 · La Liga 2 2026-271–2HT 0–1
  2. Eldense v EibarMon, 13 Jan 2025 · La Liga 2 2024-251–3HT 1–0
  3. Eibar v EldenseSat, 12 Oct 2024 · La Liga 2 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  4. Eibar v EldenseSat, 30 Mar 2024 · La Liga 2 2023-245–1HT 1–0
  5. Eldense v EibarMon, 28 Aug 2023 · La Liga 2 2023-242–1HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
EibarWWWWWW
EldenseDWLLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Eibar at home, Eldense away
  • 25%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 90%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 32%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.65
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 8.9
    Corners per match
    League 8.83
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 38%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 25%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.6
    Cards per match
    League 5.30
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 82%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 60%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Eibar at home, Eldense away
Eibar (home)Eldense (away)
1Position13
LWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLLWL
4Played4
2.25Points per match0.75
75%Win %25%
2.00Scored / match0.25
1.25Conceded / match1.25
3.25Avg total goals1.50
50%Both scored0%
50%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score75%
1.49xG for0.61
0.67xG against1.42

Half by half

EibarEldense
  • 1.251st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.751st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.752nd half scored / match0.25
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.25
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.550%
  • 75%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Eibar at home, Eldense away, this season.

Goals

EibarEldense
  • 2.00Scored / match0.25
  • 1.25Conceded / match1.25
  • 3.25Match total / match1.50
  • 100%Scored 1+25%
  • 50%Scored 2+0%
  • 50%Conceded 1+75%
  • 50%Conceded 2+25%
  • 75%Match over 1.525%
  • 75%Match over 2.525%
  • 50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

EibarEldense
  • 14.25Shots for11.50
  • 11.75Shots against11.00
  • 5.50On target for3.25
  • 4.00On target against4.00
  • 14%Shot conversion2%
  • 1.49xG for0.61
  • 0.67xG against1.42

Corners

EibarEldense
  • 4.75Corners for6.25
  • 3.50Corners against3.25
  • 8.25Match total9.50
  • 50%Over 7.575%
  • 50%Over 8.525%
  • 50%Over 9.525%
  • 0%Over 10.525%
  • 0%Over 11.525%

Cards

EibarEldense
  • 1.75Cards for2.00
  • 3.75Cards against1.75
  • 5.50Match total3.75
  • 75%Over 2.575%
  • 75%Over 3.575%
  • 75%Over 4.550%
  • 75%Over 5.50%
  • 9.75Fouls committed12.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Eibar81121
2Castellon81220
3Almeria8818
11Celta B9-111
12Las Palmas8-111
13Eldense9-111
14Tenerife8-211
15Leganes8-511
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga 2 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.