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MatchDaySync

Elche v Malaga, La Liga, Sun, 7 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 27. Sun, 7 Mar 2027

ElcheHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
MalagaAway
LLDLWLeague form, oldest to newestDDLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Elche have 3 scored home results and Malaga 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Elche at home: 0.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Malaga away: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Elche scored 1.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Malaga scored 0.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.50 per club appearance across 146 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 7 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Elche: 4 wins; Malaga: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Elche at home and Malaga away.

Elche at home

xG 1.32
  • Shots per match12.7
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.3

Malaga away

xG 0.45
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match2.0
  • Goals per match0.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 73 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Elche
1.93
Expected goals, Malaga
0.70
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
49%
Both clubs score
43%
Elche score at least once
85%
Malaga score at least once
50%
Season sample
7 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Elche win–
Draw–
Malaga win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Elche goals, columns are Malaga goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.70 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Elche 7 matches, Malaga 8, the league 73, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.0%24.0%
2.556.0%44.0%
3.537.3%62.7%
4.522.7%77.3%

First-half goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.7%33.3%
1.546.7%53.3%
2.517.3%82.7%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.7%49.3%
9.549.3%50.7%
10.539.4%60.6%

Yellow + red card events · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.8%4.2%
1.587.3%12.7%
2.576.1%23.9%
3.562.0%38.0%
4.547.9%52.1%
5.533.8%66.2%
6.514.1%85.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Elche wins
1
Draws
1
Malaga wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
18 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
6 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Elche clean sheets
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Malaga clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.83
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
6.00
6 with card data
  1. Elche v MalagaSun, 25 May 2025 · La Liga 2 2024-252–0HT 0–0
  2. Malaga v ElcheSat, 28 Sept 2024 · La Liga 2 2024-250–3HT 0–1
  3. Elche v MalagaSat, 1 Feb 2020 · La Liga 2 2019-202–0HT 1–0
  4. Malaga v ElcheSun, 24 Nov 2019 · La Liga 2 2019-203–3HT 1–2
  5. Malaga v ElcheSat, 8 Jun 2019 · La Liga 2 2018-193–0HT 1–0
  6. Elche v MalagaFri, 19 Oct 2018 · La Liga 2 2018-192–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Elche at homeDWLLLL
Malaga awayWLLLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Elche at home, Malaga away
  • 46%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 3.6
    Avg total goals
    League 3.00
    3 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 47%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 9.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.65
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 51%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 39%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 4.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.29
    3 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 62%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 48%
    3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Elche at home, Malaga away
Elche (home)Malaga (away)
18Position19
LLLLast 5, oldest to newestLLDL
3Played4
0.00Points per match0.25
0%Win %0%
1.33Scored / match0.25
3.67Conceded / match2.00
5.00Avg total goals2.25
67%Both scored25%
0%Clean sheets0%
33%Failed to score75%
1.32xG for0.45
2.86xG against1.55

Half by half

ElcheMalaga
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 2.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half scored / match0.25
  • 1.672nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 100%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Elche at home, Malaga away, this season.

Goals

ElcheMalaga
  • 1.33Scored / match0.25
  • 3.67Conceded / match2.00
  • 5.00Match total / match2.25
  • 67%Scored 1+25%
  • 67%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 100%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 100%Match over 2.525%
  • 100%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

ElcheMalaga
  • 12.67Shots for10.50
  • 14.67Shots against17.75
  • 5.00On target for2.00
  • 5.67On target against6.50
  • 11%Shot conversion2%
  • 1.32xG for0.45
  • 2.86xG against1.55

Corners

ElcheMalaga
  • 3.67Corners for5.25
  • 4.33Corners against5.25
  • 8.00Match total10.50
  • 33%Over 7.550%
  • 33%Over 8.550%
  • 33%Over 9.550%
  • 33%Over 10.550%
  • 33%Over 11.550%

Cards

ElcheMalaga
  • 3.00Cards for2.00
  • 1.33Cards against1.75
  • 4.33Match total3.75
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 67%Over 3.550%
  • 67%Over 4.550%
  • 67%Over 5.525%
  • 14.33Fouls committed11.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
16Santander7-107
17Levante6-45
18Elche7-65
19Malaga8-94
19Valencia7-94
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.