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Elfsborg v Malmo FF, Allsvenskan, Fri, 23 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 25. Fri, 23 Oct 2026

ElfsborgHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
Malmo FFAway
DWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestLWDWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Elfsborg have 14 scored home results and Malmo FF 13 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Elfsborg at home: 1.79 points per match (14 measured matches); Malmo FF away: 1.77 points per match (13 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Elfsborg scored 1.50 per home match (14 measured matches); Malmo FF scored 1.15 away (13). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.47 per club appearance across 518 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 14 of 27 pooled club appearances (51.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Elfsborg: 4 wins; Malmo FF: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 259 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Elfsborg
1.55
Expected goals, Malmo FF
1.00
Most likely score
1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals
47%
Both clubs score
50%
Elfsborg score at least once
79%
Malmo FF score at least once
63%
Season sample
28 and 27 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Elfsborg win–
Draw–
Malmo FF win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Elfsborg goals, columns are Malmo FF goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%12%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%9%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.27 goals).

Sample. Elfsborg 28 matches, Malmo FF 27, the league 259, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 259 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.6%18.4%
2.552.1%47.9%
3.530.3%69.7%
4.518.0%82.0%

First-half goals · 179 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.519.3%80.7%
3.55.0%95.0%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Elfsborg wins
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF wins
Goals / meeting
2.90
29 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Elfsborg clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Malmo FF clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Malmo FF v ElfsborgSun, 26 Jul 2026 · Allsvenskan 20261–2HT 1–2
  2. Elfsborg v Malmo FFSun, 14 Sept 2025 · Allsvenskan 20252–2
  3. Malmo FF v ElfsborgMon, 7 Apr 2025 · Allsvenskan 20252–1
  4. Malmo FF v ElfsborgTue, 28 May 2024 · Allsvenskan 20242–1
  5. Elfsborg v Malmo FFSun, 5 May 2024 · Allsvenskan 20243–1
  6. Malmo FF v ElfsborgSun, 12 Nov 2023 · Allsvenskan 20231–0
  7. Elfsborg v Malmo FFSun, 28 May 2023 · Allsvenskan 20233–0
  8. Elfsborg v Malmo FFSun, 4 Sept 2022 · Allsvenskan 20223–2
  9. Malmo FF v ElfsborgMon, 11 Apr 2022 · Allsvenskan 20221–1
  10. Elfsborg v Malmo FFWed, 22 Sept 2021 · Allsvenskan 20210–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Elfsborg at homeLLLWWW
Malmo FF awayWWWDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Elfsborg at home, Malmo FF away
  • 52%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 73%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 37%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 19%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 30%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 12%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.95
    14 + 13 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    11 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Elfsborg at home, Malmo FF away
Elfsborg (home)Malmo FF (away)
5Position8
LLWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWWWL
14Played13
1.79Points per match1.77
50%Win %54%
1.50Scored / match1.15
0.86Conceded / match1.31
2.36Avg total goals2.46
57%Both scored46%
43%Clean sheets46%
0%Failed to score8%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

ElfsborgMalmo FF
  • 0.451st half scored / match0.55
  • 0.271st half conceded / match0.82
  • 1.092nd half scored / match0.64
  • 0.552nd half conceded / match0.36
  • 27%Leading at half-time18%
  • 55%1st half over 0.555%
  • 18%1st half over 1.527%
  • 91%2nd half over 0.573%
  • 46%2nd half over 1.518%
  • 27%Scored in both halves9%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Elfsborg at home, Malmo FF away, this season.

Goals

ElfsborgMalmo FF
  • 1.50Scored / match1.15
  • 0.86Conceded / match1.31
  • 2.36Match total / match2.46
  • 100%Scored 1+92%
  • 43%Scored 2+23%
  • 57%Conceded 1+54%
  • 21%Conceded 2+39%
  • 93%Match over 1.554%
  • 36%Match over 2.539%
  • 7%Match over 3.531%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
3Hacken291150
4AIK29249
5Elfsborg281045
6Hammarby222943
6Hammarby IF222943
8Malmo FF27742
9Vasteras SK27-736
10IFK Göteborg23-935
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Allsvenskan matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.