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Estrela v Estoril, Primeira Liga, Sun, 10 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 17. Sun, 10 Jan 2027

EstrelaHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
EstorilAway
DWWDLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio José Gomes. Photo: JP Ribeiro, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Estrela have 6 scored home results and Estoril 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Estrela at home: 1.50 points per match (6 measured matches); Estoril away: 0.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Estrela scored 1.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Estoril scored 0.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 11 pooled club appearances (63.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Estrela: 1 wins; Estoril: 4 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Estrela at home and Estoril away.

Estrela at home

xG 0.84
  • Shots per match12.0
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.7

Estoril away

xG 0.64
  • Shots per match8.3
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match0.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Estrela
2.02
Expected goals, Estoril
0.63
Most likely score
2-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
49%
Both clubs score
41%
Estrela score at least once
87%
Estoril score at least once
47%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Estrela win–
Draw–
Estoril win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Estrela goals, columns are Estoril goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
310%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
45%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Estrela 9 matches, Estoril 9, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 10 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.4%23.6%
2.556.2%43.8%
3.537.1%62.9%
4.59.0%91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.7%30.3%
1.539.3%60.7%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.546.9%53.1%
9.537.5%62.5%
10.525.0%75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.3%
1.590.6%9.4%
2.581.3%18.8%
3.567.2%32.8%
4.546.9%53.1%
5.526.6%73.4%
6.520.3%79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Estrela wins
1
Draws
4
Estoril wins
Goals / meeting
3.50
21 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Estrela clean sheets
0%
0 of 6 meetings
Estoril clean sheets
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.33
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.00
6 with card data
  1. Estrela v EstorilMon, 19 Jan 2026 · Primeira Liga 2025-260–5HT 0–1
  2. Estoril v EstrelaMon, 11 Aug 2025 · Primeira Liga 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Estoril v EstrelaSat, 17 May 2025 · Primeira Liga 2024-254–0HT 4–0
  4. Estrela v EstorilSun, 5 Jan 2025 · Primeira Liga 2024-252–4HT 0–3
  5. Estoril v EstrelaSun, 4 Feb 2024 · Primeira Liga 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  6. Estrela v EstorilFri, 25 Aug 2023 · Primeira Liga 2023-242–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Estrela at homeDDDWWL
Estoril awayDLLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Estrela at home, Estoril away
  • 62%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 62%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    6 + 5 matches
  • 53%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 9.3
    Corners per match
    League 8.61
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 47%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 29%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 24%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.3
    Cards per match
    League 4.44
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 68%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 47%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Estrela at home, Estoril away
Estrela (home)Estoril (away)
7Position21
DDWWLLast 5, oldest to newestLLLLL
6Played5
1.50Points per match0.00
33%Win %0%
1.67Scored / match0.40
1.67Conceded / match1.60
3.33Avg total goals2.00
83%Both scored40%
0%Clean sheets0%
17%Failed to score60%
0.84xG for0.64
1.90xG against1.97

Half by half

EstrelaEstoril
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.831st half conceded / match0.40
  • 1.332nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.832nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 67%1st half over 0.540%
  • 50%1st half over 1.50%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Estrela at home, Estoril away, this season.

Goals

EstrelaEstoril
  • 1.67Scored / match0.40
  • 1.67Conceded / match1.60
  • 3.33Match total / match2.00
  • 83%Scored 1+40%
  • 83%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+60%
  • 100%Match over 1.560%
  • 83%Match over 2.540%
  • 50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

EstrelaEstoril
  • 12.00Shots for8.33
  • 11.50Shots against21.67
  • 3.75On target for2.67
  • 5.00On target against6.00
  • 13%Shot conversion4%
  • 0.84xG for0.64
  • 1.90xG against1.97

Corners

EstrelaEstoril
  • 5.00Corners for2.00
  • 5.00Corners against6.67
  • 10.00Match total8.67
  • 75%Over 7.567%
  • 75%Over 8.567%
  • 50%Over 9.533%
  • 25%Over 10.533%
  • 25%Over 11.50%

Cards

EstrelaEstoril
  • 2.25Cards for3.67
  • 2.00Cards against0.67
  • 4.25Match total4.33
  • 100%Over 2.567%
  • 75%Over 3.567%
  • 50%Over 4.567%
  • 0%Over 5.533%
  • 11.50Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Benfica81316
6Sp Lisbon7915
7Estrela9114
8Academico Viseu9-214
9Arouca9112
19Rio Ave9-164
20Casa Pia9-174
21Estoril9-92
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.