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Estrela v Maritimo, Primeira Liga, Sun, 20 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sun, 20 Dec 2026

EstrelaHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
MaritimoAway
DWWDLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio José Gomes. Photo: JP Ribeiro, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Estrela have 6 scored home results and Maritimo 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Estrela at home: 1.50 points per match (6 measured matches); Maritimo away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Estrela scored 1.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Maritimo scored 1.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 10 pooled club appearances (90.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match.

Estrela

xG 1.23
  • Shots per match13.1
  • On target per match4.6
  • Goals per match2.0

Maritimo

xG 0.94
  • Shots per match10.4
  • On target per match3.1
  • Goals per match1.1

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Estrela
2.45
Expected goals, Maritimo
1.59
Most likely score
2-1 (8%)
Three or more goals
77%
Both clubs score
73%
Estrela score at least once
91%
Maritimo score at least once
80%
Season sample
9 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Estrela win–
Draw–
Maritimo win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Estrela goals, columns are Maritimo goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
14%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%8%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Estrela 9 matches, Maritimo 8, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 10 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.4%23.6%
2.556.2%43.8%
3.537.1%62.9%
4.59.0%91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.7%30.3%
1.539.3%60.7%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.546.9%53.1%
9.537.5%62.5%
10.525.0%75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.3%
1.590.6%9.4%
2.581.3%18.8%
3.567.2%32.8%
4.546.9%53.1%
5.526.6%73.4%
6.520.3%79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Estrela at homeDDDWWL
Maritimo awayLLWLLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 82%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 94%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 82%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 46%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 11%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    9 + 8 matches
  • 77%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 59%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    9 + 8 matches
  • 7.8
    Corners per match
    League 8.61
    7 + 7 matches
  • 36%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 47%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 14%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 7%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 24%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 4.4
    Cards per match
    League 4.44
    7 + 7 matches
  • 64%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 68%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 43%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 47%
    7 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
EstrelaMaritimo
7Position15
DWWDLLast 5, oldest to newestLLLDL
9Played8
1.56Points per match1.00
33%Win %25%
2.00Scored / match1.13
1.89Conceded / match1.75
3.89Avg total goals2.88
89%Both scored75%
0%Clean sheets13%
11%Failed to score13%
1.23xG for0.94
1.63xG against1.32

Half by half

EstrelaMaritimo
  • 0.441st half scored / match0.38
  • 0.781st half conceded / match1.13
  • 1.562nd half scored / match0.75
  • 1.112nd half conceded / match0.63
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 67%1st half over 0.588%
  • 56%1st half over 1.563%
  • 89%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.538%
  • 44%Scored in both halves13%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

EstrelaMaritimo
  • 2.00Scored / match1.13
  • 1.89Conceded / match1.75
  • 3.89Match total / match2.88
  • 89%Scored 1+88%
  • 89%Scored 2+25%
  • 100%Conceded 1+88%
  • 78%Conceded 2+63%
  • 100%Match over 1.588%
  • 89%Match over 2.575%
  • 67%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

EstrelaMaritimo
  • 13.14Shots for10.43
  • 11.57Shots against13.43
  • 4.57On target for3.14
  • 5.00On target against5.29
  • 15%Shot conversion11%
  • 1.23xG for0.94
  • 1.63xG against1.32

Corners

EstrelaMaritimo
  • 4.00Corners for3.00
  • 4.29Corners against4.29
  • 8.29Match total7.29
  • 57%Over 7.557%
  • 57%Over 8.514%
  • 29%Over 9.50%
  • 14%Over 10.50%
  • 14%Over 11.50%

Cards

EstrelaMaritimo
  • 2.43Cards for1.86
  • 2.14Cards against2.29
  • 4.57Match total4.14
  • 100%Over 2.586%
  • 71%Over 3.557%
  • 57%Over 4.529%
  • 14%Over 5.514%
  • 11.29Fouls committed15.43

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Benfica81316
6Sp Lisbon7915
7Estrela9114
8Academico Viseu9-214
9Arouca9112
13Moreirense10-89
14Famalicao828
15Maritimo8-58
16Alverca10-78
17Guimaraes9-55
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.