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Exeter v York, EFL League Two, Sat, 6 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 29. Sat, 6 Feb 2027

ExeterHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
YorkAway
LDLWWLeague form, oldest to newestDWLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

St James Park. Photo: Alonstoter, CC0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Exeter have 5 scored home results and York 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Exeter at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); York away: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Exeter scored 0.80 per home match (5 measured matches); York scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Exeter: 0 wins; York: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Exeter at home and York away.

Exeter at home

xG 1.43
  • Shots per match13.2
  • On target per match4.6
  • Goals per match0.8

York away

xG 2.10
  • Shots per match17.8
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Exeter
0.71
Expected goals, York
0.73
Most likely score
0-0 (24%)
Three or more goals
18%
Both clubs score
26%
Exeter score at least once
51%
York score at least once
52%
Season sample
10 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Exeter win–
Draw–
York win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Exeter goals, columns are York goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
024%17%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
117%12%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Exeter 10 matches, York 9, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Exeter wins
0
Draws
1
York wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Exeter clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
York clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
12.00
1 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
5.00
1 with card data · small sample
  1. York v ExeterSat, 29 Aug 2026 · EFL League Two 2026-272–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Exeter at homeDDWDWD
York awayWDDLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Exeter at home, York away
  • 48%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 1.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10.2
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Exeter at home, York away
Exeter (home)York (away)
14Position5
WDDDWLast 5, oldest to newestDLDL
5Played4
1.80Points per match0.50
40%Win %0%
0.80Scored / match1.00
0.20Conceded / match1.75
1.00Avg total goals2.75
20%Both scored75%
80%Clean sheets0%
40%Failed to score25%
1.43xG for2.10
0.67xG against1.26

Half by half

ExeterYork
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.75
  • 0.402nd half scored / match0.25
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 20%1st half over 0.575%
  • 20%1st half over 1.575%
  • 40%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Exeter at home, York away, this season.

Goals

ExeterYork
  • 0.80Scored / match1.00
  • 0.20Conceded / match1.75
  • 1.00Match total / match2.75
  • 60%Scored 1+75%
  • 20%Scored 2+25%
  • 20%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+50%
  • 40%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.525%
  • 0%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

ExeterYork
  • 13.20Shots for17.75
  • 9.80Shots against16.50
  • 4.60On target for4.00
  • 1.80On target against5.25
  • 6%Shot conversion6%
  • 1.43xG for2.10
  • 0.67xG against1.26

Corners

ExeterYork
  • 5.60Corners for6.50
  • 3.00Corners against5.25
  • 8.60Match total11.75
  • 80%Over 7.5100%
  • 60%Over 8.575%
  • 60%Over 9.575%
  • 20%Over 10.575%
  • 20%Over 11.550%

Cards

ExeterYork
  • 1.60Cards for1.00
  • 2.20Cards against1.25
  • 3.80Match total2.25
  • 80%Over 2.550%
  • 60%Over 3.50%
  • 60%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 13.20Fouls committed8.25

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
6Walsall9615
7Chesterfield10315
12Newport County10113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.