FC Porto vs Estoril stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 10. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

FC PortoHome

vKick-off 20:30 UTC

EstorilAway

WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio do Dragão. Photo: Edgar Jiménez from Porto, Portugal, CC BY-SA 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, FC Porto have 4 scored home results and Estoril 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: FC Porto at home: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Estoril away: 0.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. FC Porto scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Estoril scored 0.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, FC Porto at home and Estoril away.

FC Porto at home

Shots per match–
On target per match–
Goals per match2.3

Estoril away

xG 0.64

Shots per match8.3
On target per match2.7
Goals per match0.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, FC Porto: 2.53
Expected goals, Estoril: 0.17
Most likely score: 2-0 (22%)
Three or more goals: 50%
Both clubs score: 14%
FC Porto score at least once: 92%
Estoril score at least once: 15%
Season sample: 8 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

FC Porto win–

Draw–

Estoril win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are FC Porto goals, columns are Estoril goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

07%1%

117%3%

222%4%

318%3%

412%2%

56%1%

62%

71%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. FC Porto 8 matches, Estoril 9, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	76.4%	23.6%
2.5	56.2%	43.8%
3.5	37.1%	62.9%
4.5	9.0%	91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69.7%	30.3%
1.5	39.3%	60.7%
2.5	12.4%	87.6%
3.5	4.5%	95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	46.9%	53.1%
9.5	37.5%	62.5%
10.5	25.0%	75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.8%	6.3%
1.5	90.6%	9.4%
2.5	81.3%	18.8%
3.5	67.2%	32.8%
4.5	46.9%	53.1%
5.5	26.6%	73.4%
6.5	20.3%	79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

FC Porto at homeWWWWLW

Estoril awayDLLLLL

Sat, 10 Oct@ Academico Viseu1–2C ––– · Y –––
Mon, 14 Sept@ Sporting Braga0–1C ––– · Y –––
Mon, 14 Sept@ Sp Braga0–1C 2–4 · Y 5–0
Mon, 31 Aug@ Benfica1–2C 0–9 · Y 1–0
Sun, 16 Aug@ Nacional0–2C 4–7 · Y 5–2
Sun, 10 May@ Alverca1–1C 4–4 · Y 2–3

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

FC Porto at home, Estoril away

45%
Both teams scored
League 52%
4 + 5 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 94%
4 + 5 matches
80%
Over 1.5 goals
League 77%
4 + 5 matches
45%
Over 2.5 goals
League 56%
4 + 5 matches
13%
Over 3.5 goals
League 37%
4 + 5 matches
0%
Over 4.5 goals
League 8%
4 + 5 matches
2.4
Avg total goals
League 2.76
4 + 5 matches
58%
1st half over 0.5
League 70%
4 + 5 matches
25%
1st half over 1.5
League 39%
4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

FC Porto at home, Estoril away

FC Porto (home)		Estoril (away)
1	Position	21
WWWW	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLLLL
4	Played	5
3.00	Points per match	0.00
100%	Win %	0%
2.25	Scored / match	0.40
0.50	Conceded / match	1.60
2.75	Avg total goals	2.00
50%	Both scored	40%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	60%
–	xG for	0.64
–	xG against	1.97

Half by half

FC PortoEstoril

1.001st half scored / match0.00
0.251st half conceded / match0.40
1.252nd half scored / match0.40
0.252nd half conceded / match1.20
50%Leading at half-time0%
75%1st half over 0.540%
50%1st half over 1.50%
75%2nd half over 0.5100%
50%2nd half over 1.560%
50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

FC Porto at home, Estoril away, this season.

Goals

FC PortoEstoril

2.25Scored / match0.40
0.50Conceded / match1.60
2.75Match total / match2.00
100%Scored 1+40%
100%Scored 2+0%
50%Conceded 1+100%
0%Conceded 2+60%
100%Match over 1.560%
50%Match over 2.540%
25%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

FC PortoEstoril

–Shots for8.33
–Shots against21.67
–On target for2.67
–On target against6.00
–Shot conversion4%
–xG for0.64
–xG against1.97

Corners

FC PortoEstoril

–Corners for2.00
–Corners against6.67
–Match total8.67
–Over 7.567%
–Over 8.567%
–Over 9.533%
–Over 10.533%
–Over 11.50%

Cards

FC PortoEstoril

–Cards for3.67
–Cards against0.67
–Match total4.33
–Over 2.567%
–Over 3.567%
–Over 4.567%
–Over 5.533%
–Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	16	24
2	Porto	7	15	21
3	Santa Clara	9	8	19
19	Rio Ave	9	-16	4
20	Casa Pia	9	-17	4
21	Estoril	9	-9	2

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.