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FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v Hertha BSC II U23, Regionalliga Nordost, Sun, 21 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 26. Sun, 21 Mar 2027

FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
Hertha BSC II U23Away
DWWDWLeague form, oldest to newestLLWDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt have 6 scored home results and Hertha BSC II U23 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home: 2.33 points per match (6 measured matches); Hertha BSC II U23 away: 1.33 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scored 3.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Hertha BSC II U23 scored 1.00 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.60 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 12 pooled club appearances (58.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt: 1 wins; Hertha BSC II U23: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
3.58
Expected goals, Hertha BSC II U23
0.57
Most likely score
3-0 (12%)
Three or more goals
78%
Both clubs score
42%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt score at least once
97%
Hertha BSC II U23 score at least once
43%
Season sample
10 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win–
Draw–
Hertha BSC II U23 win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt goals, columns are Hertha BSC II U23 goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
312%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
411%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
58%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
65%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
72%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.61 goals) and away average (1.59 goals).

Sample. FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 10 matches, Hertha BSC II U23 12, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.585.6%14.4%
2.562.5%37.5%
3.541.3%58.7%
4.521.2%78.8%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.1%27.9%
1.545.2%54.8%
2.521.2%78.8%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins
0
Draws
0
Hertha BSC II U23 wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Hertha BSC II U23 clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Hertha BSC II U23 v FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtTue, 15 Sept 2026 · Regionalliga Nordost 2026-271–2HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at homeWWWDWD
Hertha BSC II U23 awayWLDLWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home, Hertha BSC II U23 away
  • 58%
    Both teams scored
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 86%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 63%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 33%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.20
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 45%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home, Hertha BSC II U23 away
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (home)Hertha BSC II U23 (away)
2Position14
WWDWDLast 5, oldest to newestLDLWD
6Played6
2.33Points per match1.33
67%Win %33%
3.67Scored / match1.00
0.83Conceded / match1.33
4.50Avg total goals2.33
67%Both scored50%
33%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtHertha BSC II U23
  • 1.831st half scored / match0.17
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.832nd half scored / match0.83
  • 0.832nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 83%Leading at half-time0%
  • 83%1st half over 0.550%
  • 50%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 83%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 67%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home, Hertha BSC II U23 away, this season.

Goals

FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtHertha BSC II U23
  • 3.67Scored / match1.00
  • 0.83Conceded / match1.33
  • 4.50Match total / match2.33
  • 100%Scored 1+67%
  • 83%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+67%
  • 17%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.583%
  • 83%Match over 2.550%
  • 83%Match over 3.517%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Regionalliga Nordost matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.