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FC Tobyl v FK Aktobe, Kazakhstan Premier League, Sat, 31 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 30. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

FC TobylHome
vKick-off 10:00 UTC
FK AktobeAway
LWWLWLeague form, oldest to newestLWWDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, FC Tobyl have 13 scored home results and FK Aktobe 14 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: FC Tobyl at home: 2.23 points per match (13 measured matches); FK Aktobe away: 1.07 points per match (14 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. FC Tobyl scored 1.77 per home match (13 measured matches); FK Aktobe scored 1.36 away (14). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.25 per club appearance across 420 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 18 of 27 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. FC Tobyl: 0 wins; FK Aktobe: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 210 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, FC Tobyl
1.41
Expected goals, FK Aktobe
1.38
Most likely score
1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals
53%
Both clubs score
57%
FC Tobyl score at least once
76%
FK Aktobe score at least once
75%
Season sample
27 and 27 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

FC Tobyl win–
Draw–
FK Aktobe win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are FC Tobyl goals, columns are FK Aktobe goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%12%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%4%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.43 goals) and away average (1.07 goals).

Sample. FC Tobyl 27 matches, FK Aktobe 27, the league 210, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 210 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.571.7%28.3%
2.549.1%50.9%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.510.4%89.6%

First-half goals · 210 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.5%32.5%
1.529.2%70.8%
2.510.8%89.2%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
FC Tobyl wins
0
Draws
1
FK Aktobe wins
Goals / meeting
5.00
5 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
FC Tobyl clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
FK Aktobe clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. FK Aktobe v FC TobylSat, 7 Mar 2026 · Kazakhstan Premier League 20264–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
FC Tobyl at homeDLWWLW
FK Aktobe awayLDWLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
FC Tobyl at home, FK Aktobe away
  • 66%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 82%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 72%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 59%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 49%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 37%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 11%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.50
    13 + 14 matches
  • 77%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    13 + 14 matches
  • 37%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 29%
    13 + 14 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
FC Tobyl at home, FK Aktobe away
FC Tobyl (home)FK Aktobe (away)
7Position4
WWWLWLast 5, oldest to newestDWLWW
13Played14
2.23Points per match1.07
69%Win %29%
1.77Scored / match1.36
1.15Conceded / match1.57
2.92Avg total goals2.93
62%Both scored71%
23%Clean sheets0%
15%Failed to score29%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

FC TobylFK Aktobe
  • 0.771st half scored / match0.57
  • 0.541st half conceded / match0.57
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.79
  • 0.622nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 38%Leading at half-time29%
  • 69%1st half over 0.586%
  • 46%1st half over 1.529%
  • 69%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 62%2nd half over 1.564%
  • 39%Scored in both halves36%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

FC Tobyl at home, FK Aktobe away, this season.

Goals

FC TobylFK Aktobe
  • 1.77Scored / match1.36
  • 1.15Conceded / match1.57
  • 2.92Match total / match2.93
  • 85%Scored 1+71%
  • 62%Scored 2+43%
  • 77%Conceded 1+100%
  • 31%Conceded 2+43%
  • 85%Match over 1.579%
  • 62%Match over 2.557%
  • 39%Match over 3.536%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
2FC Kairat Almaty273360
3Astana261648
4FK Aktobe27945
5Oqjetpes FK26645
6Yelimay Semey26038
7FC Tobyl27-137
8FK Zhenys27-732
9Ulytau FC25-831
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Kazakhstan Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.