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Fiorentina v Lazio, Serie A, Sun, 3 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 17. Sun, 3 Jan 2027

FiorentinaHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
LazioAway
LLWDLLeague form, oldest to newestWWWDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Artemio Franchi. Photo: Sailko, CC BY 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Fiorentina have 3 scored home results and Lazio 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Fiorentina at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Lazio away: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Fiorentina scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Lazio scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Fiorentina: 4 wins; Lazio: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Fiorentina at home and Lazio away.

Fiorentina at home

xG 1.57
  • Shots per match18.7
  • On target per match4.7
  • Goals per match0.7

Lazio away

xG 1.37
  • Shots per match13.7
  • On target per match3.7
  • Goals per match1.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Fiorentina
0.51
Expected goals, Lazio
2.40
Most likely score
0-2 (16%)
Three or more goals
56%
Both clubs score
36%
Fiorentina score at least once
40%
Lazio score at least once
91%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Fiorentina win–
Draw–
Lazio win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Fiorentina goals, columns are Lazio goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%13%16%13%8%4%1%under 1%
13%7%8%6%4%2%1%under 1%
21%2%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Fiorentina 6 matches, Lazio 5, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Fiorentina wins
2
Draws
4
Lazio wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
25 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Fiorentina clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Lazio clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.30
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.90
10 with card data
  1. Fiorentina v LazioMon, 13 Apr 2026 · Serie A 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Lazio v FiorentinaWed, 7 Jan 2026 · Serie A 2025-262–2HT 0–0
  3. Lazio v FiorentinaSun, 26 Jan 2025 · Serie A 2024-251–2HT 0–2
  4. Fiorentina v LazioSun, 22 Sept 2024 · Serie A 2024-252–1HT 0–1
  5. Fiorentina v LazioMon, 26 Feb 2024 · Serie A 2023-242–1HT 0–1
  6. Lazio v FiorentinaMon, 30 Oct 2023 · Serie A 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  7. Lazio v FiorentinaSun, 29 Jan 2023 · Serie A 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  8. Fiorentina v LazioMon, 10 Oct 2022 · Serie A 2022-230–4HT 0–2
  9. Fiorentina v LazioSat, 5 Feb 2022 · Serie A 2021-220–3HT 0–0
  10. Lazio v FiorentinaWed, 27 Oct 2021 · Serie A 2021-221–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Fiorentina at homeDWLLWD
Lazio awayWWLWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Fiorentina at home, Lazio away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Fiorentina at home, Lazio away
Fiorentina (home)Lazio (away)
18Position3
LLDLast 5, oldest to newestWWW
3Played3
0.33Points per match3.00
0%Win %100%
0.67Scored / match1.67
2.00Conceded / match0.33
2.67Avg total goals2.00
67%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets67%
33%Failed to score0%
1.57xG for1.37
1.02xG against1.48

Half by half

FiorentinaLazio
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match1.67
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 67%1st half over 0.50%
  • 33%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Fiorentina at home, Lazio away, this season.

Goals

FiorentinaLazio
  • 0.67Scored / match1.67
  • 2.00Conceded / match0.33
  • 2.67Match total / match2.00
  • 67%Scored 1+100%
  • 0%Scored 2+67%
  • 100%Conceded 1+33%
  • 67%Conceded 2+0%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 67%Match over 2.533%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

FiorentinaLazio
  • 18.67Shots for13.67
  • 10.67Shots against13.67
  • 4.67On target for3.67
  • 5.00On target against5.67
  • 4%Shot conversion12%
  • 1.57xG for1.37
  • 1.02xG against1.48

Corners

FiorentinaLazio
  • 5.00Corners for5.33
  • 5.00Corners against5.67
  • 10.00Match total11.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 67%Over 8.5100%
  • 33%Over 9.567%
  • 33%Over 10.533%
  • 33%Over 11.533%

Cards

FiorentinaLazio
  • 2.00Cards for1.67
  • 1.00Cards against5.00
  • 3.00Match total6.67
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 33%Over 3.5100%
  • 33%Over 4.5100%
  • 33%Over 5.5100%
  • 12.67Fouls committed12.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Inter61016
2Roma51113
3Lazio5513
4Cagliari5312
5Milan5611
16Genoa6-64
17Parma6-64
18Fiorentina6-74
19Bologna5-32
20Venezia5-90
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.