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Fleetwood Town v Newport County, EFL League Two, Sat, 20 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 32. Sat, 20 Feb 2027

Fleetwood TownHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Newport CountyAway
DLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestDDWDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Highbury Stadium. Photo: Tangerines at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Fleetwood Town have 5 scored home results and Newport County 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Fleetwood Town at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Newport County away: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Fleetwood Town scored 1.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Newport County scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Fleetwood Town: 2 wins; Newport County: 0 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Fleetwood Town at home and Newport County away.

Fleetwood Town at home

xG 0.99
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match2.8
  • Goals per match1.0

Newport County away

xG 0.58
  • Shots per match9.0
  • On target per match3.2
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Fleetwood Town
1.16
Expected goals, Newport County
0.92
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
35%
Both clubs score
41%
Fleetwood Town score at least once
69%
Newport County score at least once
60%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Fleetwood Town win–
Draw–
Newport County win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Fleetwood Town goals, columns are Newport County goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%11%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Fleetwood Town 10 matches, Newport County 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Fleetwood Town wins
3
Draws
0
Newport County wins
Goals / meeting
1.20
6 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Fleetwood Town clean sheets
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Newport County clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.20
5 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.80
5 with card data
  1. Newport County v Fleetwood TownSat, 12 Sept 2026 · EFL League Two 2026-271–1HT 1–0
  2. Fleetwood Town v Newport CountySat, 28 Feb 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. Newport County v Fleetwood TownSat, 13 Dec 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-260–2HT 0–2
  4. Fleetwood Town v Newport CountySat, 26 Apr 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-252–0HT 0–0
  5. Newport County v Fleetwood TownSat, 26 Oct 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-250–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Fleetwood Town at homeDWWLWD
Newport County awayLLLDWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Fleetwood Town at home, Newport County away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 8.8
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 5 matches
  • 68%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 35%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 4.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 5 matches
  • 53%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 33%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Fleetwood Town at home, Newport County away
Fleetwood Town (home)Newport County (away)
16Position12
DDWLDLast 5, oldest to newestLLLDD
5Played5
1.20Points per match0.40
20%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match0.80
0.80Conceded / match1.60
1.80Avg total goals2.40
60%Both scored40%
40%Clean sheets40%
20%Failed to score60%
0.99xG for0.58
1.01xG against1.57

Half by half

Fleetwood TownNewport County
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.20
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.20
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match1.40
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 60%1st half over 0.520%
  • 20%1st half over 1.520%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 20%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Fleetwood Town at home, Newport County away, this season.

Goals

Fleetwood TownNewport County
  • 1.00Scored / match0.80
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.60
  • 1.80Match total / match2.40
  • 80%Scored 1+40%
  • 20%Scored 2+20%
  • 60%Conceded 1+60%
  • 20%Conceded 2+40%
  • 80%Match over 1.540%
  • 20%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

Fleetwood TownNewport County
  • 16.00Shots for9.00
  • 10.75Shots against16.60
  • 2.75On target for3.20
  • 3.25On target against5.00
  • 6%Shot conversion9%
  • 0.99xG for0.58
  • 1.01xG against1.57

Corners

Fleetwood TownNewport County
  • 6.25Corners for1.60
  • 3.75Corners against6.00
  • 10.00Match total7.60
  • 75%Over 7.560%
  • 75%Over 8.560%
  • 75%Over 9.540%
  • 50%Over 10.520%
  • 25%Over 11.520%

Cards

Fleetwood TownNewport County
  • 1.50Cards for2.00
  • 2.00Cards against2.40
  • 3.50Match total4.40
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 25%Over 3.580%
  • 25%Over 4.540%
  • 25%Over 5.520%
  • 12.50Fouls committed12.20

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10Rochdale10-114
11Grimsby10213
12Newport County10113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.