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Fluminense v Cruzeiro, Brasileirão Série A, Sun, 29 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 37. Sun, 29 Nov 2026

FluminenseHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
CruzeiroAway
DWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestLWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Fluminense have 15 scored home results and Cruzeiro 14 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Fluminense at home: 2.40 points per match (15 measured matches); Cruzeiro away: 1.43 points per match (14 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Fluminense scored 1.87 per home match (15 measured matches); Cruzeiro scored 1.29 away (14). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 582 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 20 of 29 pooled club appearances (69.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Fluminense: 4 wins; Cruzeiro: 3 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 291 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Fluminense
1.97
Expected goals, Cruzeiro
1.20
Most likely score
1-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
61%
Both clubs score
60%
Fluminense score at least once
86%
Cruzeiro score at least once
70%
Season sample
29 and 29 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Fluminense win–
Draw–
Cruzeiro win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Fluminense goals, columns are Cruzeiro goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%10%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%10%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%6%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.53 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Fluminense 29 matches, Cruzeiro 29, the league 291, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 291 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.2%21.8%
2.551.9%48.1%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.511.9%88.1%

First-half goals · 288 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.8%25.2%
1.533.8%66.2%
2.58.6%91.4%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Fluminense wins
3
Draws
3
Cruzeiro wins
Goals / meeting
1.80
18 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Fluminense clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Cruzeiro clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Cruzeiro v FluminenseMon, 1 Jun 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20261–1HT 0–1
  2. Cruzeiro v FluminenseSun, 9 Nov 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20250–0
  3. Fluminense v CruzeiroThu, 17 Jul 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20250–2
  4. Fluminense v CruzeiroFri, 4 Oct 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20241–0
  5. Cruzeiro v FluminenseThu, 20 Jun 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20242–0
  6. Fluminense v CruzeiroThu, 21 Sept 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20231–0
  7. Cruzeiro v FluminenseThu, 11 May 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20230–2
  8. Cruzeiro v FluminenseThu, 10 Oct 2019 · Brasileirão Série A 20190–0
  9. Fluminense v CruzeiroSat, 18 May 2019 · Brasileirão Série A 20194–1
  10. Cruzeiro v FluminenseSun, 26 Aug 2018 · Brasileirão Série A 20182–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Fluminense at homeDWWWWW
Cruzeiro awayWLLLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Fluminense at home, Cruzeiro away
  • 69%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 97%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 78%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 69%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 35%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    15 + 14 matches
  • 76%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 35%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    15 + 14 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Fluminense at home, Cruzeiro away
Fluminense (home)Cruzeiro (away)
3Position5
DWWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWLLW
15Played14
2.40Points per match1.43
73%Win %43%
1.87Scored / match1.29
0.93Conceded / match1.71
2.80Avg total goals3.00
67%Both scored71%
33%Clean sheets14%
7%Failed to score14%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

FluminenseCruzeiro
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.43
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.86
  • 1.202nd half scored / match0.86
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.86
  • 40%Leading at half-time21%
  • 67%1st half over 0.586%
  • 27%1st half over 1.543%
  • 87%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 33%Scored in both halves29%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Fluminense at home, Cruzeiro away, this season.

Goals

FluminenseCruzeiro
  • 1.87Scored / match1.29
  • 0.93Conceded / match1.71
  • 2.80Match total / match3.00
  • 93%Scored 1+86%
  • 60%Scored 2+36%
  • 67%Conceded 1+86%
  • 27%Conceded 2+50%
  • 73%Match over 1.586%
  • 67%Match over 2.571%
  • 33%Match over 3.536%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
1Flamengo RJ293261
2Palmeiras292760
3Fluminense291251
4Athletico-PR291150
5Cruzeiro29448
6Bahia29746
7Atletico-MG29544
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Brasileirão Série A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.