Forfar vs Stirling stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 22. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

vKick-off 15:00 UTC

DLLWLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Forfar have 4 scored home results and Stirling 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Forfar at home: 2.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Stirling away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Forfar scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Stirling scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.70 per club appearance across 90 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 9 pooled club appearances (22.2%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Forfar: 4 wins; Stirling: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Forfar at home and Stirling away.

Forfar at home

Shots per match9.3
On target per match3.8
Goals per match1.3

Stirling away

Shots per match10.4
On target per match5.0
Goals per match1.2

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 45 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Forfar: 1.71
Expected goals, Stirling: 0.97
Most likely score: 1-0 (12%)
Three or more goals: 50%
Both clubs score: 51%
Forfar score at least once: 82%
Stirling score at least once: 62%
Season sample: 9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Forfar win–

Draw–

Stirling win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Forfar goals, columns are Stirling goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

07%7%3%1%

112%11%6%2%

210%10%5%2%

36%6%3%1%

42%2%1%

51%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (2.02 goals) and away average (1.38 goals).

Sample. Forfar 9 matches, Stirling 9, the league 45, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 45 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	80.9%	19.1%
2.5	61.7%	38.3%
3.5	42.6%	57.4%
4.5	27.7%	72.3%

First-half goals · 45 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80.9%	19.1%
1.5	40.4%	59.6%
2.5	19.1%	80.9%
3.5	8.5%	91.5%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	57.4%	42.6%
9.5	53.2%	46.8%
10.5	42.6%	57.4%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.6%	6.4%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	80.9%	19.1%
3.5	57.4%	42.6%
4.5	38.3%	61.7%
5.5	25.5%	74.5%
6.5	14.9%	85.1%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Forfar wins

Draws

Stirling wins

Goals / meeting

3.10

31 goals in 10 meetings

Both scored

50%

5 of 10 meetings

Over 1.5

80%

8 of 10 meetings

Over 2.5

80%

8 of 10 meetings

Over 3.5

40%

4 of 10 meetings

Forfar clean sheets

40%

4 of 10 meetings

Stirling clean sheets

20%

2 of 10 meetings

Corners / meeting

9.90

10 with corner data

Cards / meeting

3.30

10 with card data

Forfar v StirlingSat, 15 Aug 2026 · Scottish League Two 2026-273–0HT 2–0
Stirling v ForfarSat, 14 Mar 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-260–3HT 0–3
Forfar v StirlingSat, 24 Jan 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-260–1HT 0–0
Stirling v ForfarSat, 15 Nov 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-260–4HT 0–2
Forfar v StirlingSat, 16 Aug 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-264–2HT 2–1
Forfar v StirlingSat, 3 May 2025 · Scottish League Two 2024-250–0HT 0–0
Stirling v ForfarSat, 15 Feb 2025 · Scottish League Two 2024-253–1HT 1–1
Forfar v StirlingSat, 28 Dec 2024 · Scottish League Two 2024-252–2HT 1–0
Stirling v ForfarSat, 5 Oct 2024 · Scottish League Two 2024-252–1HT 2–1
Stirling v ForfarSat, 29 Apr 2023 · Scottish League Two 2022-232–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Forfar at homeWLWLWW

Tue, 29 Septv Formartine United FC2–0C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 26 Septv Dundee United B U212–1C ––– · Y –––
Tue, 22 Septv Peterhead0–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 19 Septv Annan Athletic1–0C 3–5 · Y 1–0
Sat, 5 Septv Stranraer0–3C 6–8 · Y 2–0
Sat, 15 Augv Stirling3–0C 8–5 · Y 1–2

Stirling awayLWLLLW

Sat, 3 Oct@ Annan Athletic1–0C 7–5 · Y 3–5
Sat, 26 Sept@ Fraserburgh FC3–4C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 12 Sept@ Edinburgh City3–7C 5–5 · Y 0–0
Sat, 29 Aug@ Elgin0–4C 9–3 · Y 1–1
Tue, 25 Aug@ Airdrie Utd3–1C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 15 Aug@ Forfar0–3C 5–8 · Y 2–1

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Forfar at home, Stirling away

20%
Both teams scored
League 53%
4 + 5 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 98%
4 + 5 matches
65%
Over 1.5 goals
League 82%
4 + 5 matches
65%
Over 2.5 goals
League 62%
4 + 5 matches
30%
Over 3.5 goals
League 42%
4 + 5 matches
20%
Over 4.5 goals
League 27%
4 + 5 matches
3.3
Avg total goals
League 3.40
4 + 5 matches
90%
1st half over 0.5
League 82%
4 + 5 matches
53%
1st half over 1.5
League 40%
4 + 5 matches
10.7
Corners per match
League 9.96
4 + 5 matches
78%
Corners over 8.5
League 58%
4 + 5 matches
65%
Corners over 9.5
League 53%
4 + 5 matches
55%
Corners over 10.5
League 42%
4 + 5 matches
3.2
Cards per match
League 4.20
4 + 5 matches
20%
Cards over 3.5
League 58%
4 + 5 matches
20%
Cards over 4.5
League 38%
4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Forfar at home, Stirling away

Forfar (home)		Stirling (away)
8	Position	10
WWLW	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLLLW
4	Played	5
2.25	Points per match	0.60
75%	Win %	20%
1.25	Scored / match	1.20
0.75	Conceded / match	3.40
2.00	Avg total goals	4.60
0%	Both scored	40%
75%	Clean sheets	20%
25%	Failed to score	40%
–	xG for	–
–	xG against	–

Half by half

ForfarStirling

1.001st half scored / match0.00
0.251st half conceded / match2.20
0.252nd half scored / match1.20
0.502nd half conceded / match1.20
75%Leading at half-time0%
100%1st half over 0.580%
25%1st half over 1.580%
50%2nd half over 0.5100%
25%2nd half over 1.560%
25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Forfar at home, Stirling away, this season.

Goals

ForfarStirling

1.25Scored / match1.20
0.75Conceded / match3.40
2.00Match total / match4.60
75%Scored 1+60%
25%Scored 2+40%
25%Conceded 1+80%
25%Conceded 2+80%
50%Match over 1.580%
50%Match over 2.580%
0%Match over 3.560%

Shots and xG

ForfarStirling

9.25Shots for10.40
11.50Shots against12.20
3.75On target for5.00
4.50On target against7.20
14%Shot conversion12%

Corners

ForfarStirling

5.25Corners for5.80
5.75Corners against4.60
11.00Match total10.40
100%Over 7.580%
75%Over 8.580%
50%Over 9.580%
50%Over 10.560%
50%Over 11.560%

Cards

ForfarStirling

1.25Cards for2.00
0.75Cards against2.40
2.00Match total4.40
25%Over 2.560%
0%Over 3.540%
0%Over 4.540%
0%Over 5.540%
14.75Fouls committed12.60

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
6	Kelty Hearts	9	-5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	-5	12
8	Forfar	9	-6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	-2	9
10	Stirling	9	-11	8

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.