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Gamba Osaka v Nagoya Grampus, J1 League, Sat, 6 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 24. Sat, 6 Mar 2027

Gamba OsakaHome
vKick-off 09:00 UTC
Nagoya GrampusAway
DLLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gamba Osaka have 4 scored home results and Nagoya Grampus 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gamba Osaka at home: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Nagoya Grampus away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gamba Osaka scored 1.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Nagoya Grampus scored 0.60 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.46 per club appearance across 180 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 9 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Gamba Osaka: 6 wins; Nagoya Grampus: 4 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 90 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gamba Osaka
1.10
Expected goals, Nagoya Grampus
1.13
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
38%
Both clubs score
45%
Gamba Osaka score at least once
67%
Nagoya Grampus score at least once
68%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gamba Osaka win–
Draw–
Nagoya Grampus win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gamba Osaka goals, columns are Nagoya Grampus goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%12%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%7%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.34 goals).

Sample. Gamba Osaka 9 matches, Nagoya Grampus 9, the league 90, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 16 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.3%21.7%
2.553.3%46.7%
3.531.5%68.5%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.512.0%88.0%
3.52.2%97.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

6
Gamba Osaka wins
0
Draws
4
Nagoya Grampus wins
Goals / meeting
2.60
26 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Gamba Osaka clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Nagoya Grampus clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Nagoya Grampus v Gamba OsakaSat, 22 Aug 2026 · J1 League 2026-273–1HT 1–1
  2. Nagoya Grampus v Gamba OsakaSat, 25 Oct 2025 · J1 League 20250–2
  3. Gamba Osaka v Nagoya GrampusSat, 12 Apr 2025 · J1 League 20252–0
  4. Gamba Osaka v Nagoya GrampusWed, 23 Oct 2024 · J1 League 20243–2
  5. Nagoya Grampus v Gamba OsakaSat, 11 May 2024 · J1 League 20240–1
  6. Gamba Osaka v Nagoya GrampusSat, 21 Oct 2023 · J1 League 20230–1
  7. Nagoya Grampus v Gamba OsakaSat, 6 May 2023 · J1 League 20231–0
  8. Nagoya Grampus v Gamba OsakaSat, 27 Aug 2022 · J1 League 20220–2
  9. Gamba Osaka v Nagoya GrampusSat, 2 Apr 2022 · J1 League 20223–1
  10. Gamba Osaka v Nagoya GrampusSat, 20 Nov 2021 · J1 League 20211–3

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gamba Osaka at homeWWDLLW
Nagoya Grampus awayLLLLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gamba Osaka at home, Nagoya Grampus away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 43%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 31%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    4 + 5 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Gamba Osaka at home, Nagoya Grampus away
Gamba Osaka (home)Nagoya Grampus (away)
18Position15
WDLLLast 5, oldest to newestLLLLW
4Played5
1.00Points per match0.60
25%Win %20%
1.00Scored / match0.60
1.50Conceded / match1.80
2.50Avg total goals2.40
25%Both scored40%
25%Clean sheets0%
75%Failed to score60%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Gamba OsakaNagoya Grampus
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.20
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.40
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 50%1st half over 0.560%
  • 25%1st half over 1.520%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 25%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gamba Osaka at home, Nagoya Grampus away, this season.

Goals

Gamba OsakaNagoya Grampus
  • 1.00Scored / match0.60
  • 1.50Conceded / match1.80
  • 2.50Match total / match2.40
  • 25%Scored 1+40%
  • 25%Scored 2+20%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+60%
  • 50%Match over 1.580%
  • 25%Match over 2.560%
  • 25%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
13Mito9-19
14V-Varen Nagasaki9-59
15Nagoya Grampus9-69
16Kyoto9-58
17Avispa Fukuoka9-27
18Gamba Osaka9-86
19Chiba9-115
20Verdy9-104
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J1 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.