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Gaziantep v Samsunspor, Süper Lig, Sun, 16 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sun, 16 May 2027

GaziantepHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
SamsunsporAway
WLWDLLeague form, oldest to newestWLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gaziantep have 3 scored home results and Samsunspor 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gaziantep at home: 0.67 points per match (3 measured matches); Samsunspor away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gaziantep scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Samsunspor scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 108 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Gaziantep: 1 wins; Samsunspor: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Gaziantep at home and Samsunspor away.

Gaziantep at home

xG 0.86
  • Shots per match13.3
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Samsunspor away

xG 0.81
  • Shots per match11.3
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 54 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gaziantep
1.89
Expected goals, Samsunspor
0.62
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
46%
Both clubs score
39%
Gaziantep score at least once
85%
Samsunspor score at least once
46%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gaziantep win–
Draw–
Samsunspor win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gaziantep goals, columns are Samsunspor goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.80 goals) and away average (1.19 goals).

Sample. Gaziantep 6 matches, Samsunspor 6, the league 54, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.2%26.8%
2.555.4%44.6%
3.533.9%66.1%
4.521.4%78.6%

First-half goals · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.0%25.0%
1.537.5%62.5%
2.516.1%83.9%
3.58.9%91.1%

Corners · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.1%42.9%
9.551.8%48.2%
10.535.7%64.3%

Yellow + red card events · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.4%3.6%
1.587.5%12.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.558.9%41.1%
4.544.6%55.4%
5.530.4%69.6%
6.516.1%83.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Gaziantep wins
3
Draws
2
Samsunspor wins
Goals / meeting
2.17
13 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Gaziantep clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Samsunspor clean sheets
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.50
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.17
6 with card data
  1. Samsunspor v GaziantepSun, 1 Mar 2026 · Süper Lig 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  2. Gaziantep v SamsunsporSat, 27 Sept 2025 · Süper Lig 2025-262–2HT 1–2
  3. Samsunspor v GaziantepFri, 24 Jan 2025 · Süper Lig 2024-252–1HT 1–0
  4. Gaziantep v SamsunsporSun, 18 Aug 2024 · Süper Lig 2024-250–1HT 0–1
  5. Gaziantep v SamsunsporSun, 18 Feb 2024 · Süper Lig 2023-241–1HT 0–0
  6. Samsunspor v GaziantepFri, 29 Sept 2023 · Süper Lig 2023-241–2HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gaziantep at homeWLLDLD
Samsunspor awayWWLWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gaziantep at home, Samsunspor away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 33%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 1.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.98
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 8.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.41
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 57%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 52%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 35%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Gaziantep at home, Samsunspor away
Gaziantep (home)Samsunspor (away)
10Position16
DLDLast 5, oldest to newestWLL
3Played3
0.67Points per match1.00
0%Win %33%
0.67Scored / match0.67
1.00Conceded / match0.67
1.67Avg total goals1.33
67%Both scored0%
33%Clean sheets33%
33%Failed to score67%
0.86xG for0.81
1.17xG against1.39

Half by half

GaziantepSamsunspor
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.33
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 67%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 33%1st half over 1.50%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.533%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gaziantep at home, Samsunspor away, this season.

Goals

GaziantepSamsunspor
  • 0.67Scored / match0.67
  • 1.00Conceded / match0.67
  • 1.67Match total / match1.33
  • 67%Scored 1+33%
  • 0%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+67%
  • 33%Conceded 2+0%
  • 67%Match over 1.533%
  • 33%Match over 2.50%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

GaziantepSamsunspor
  • 13.33Shots for11.33
  • 12.00Shots against15.00
  • 3.00On target for3.00
  • 3.33On target against4.67
  • 5%Shot conversion6%
  • 0.86xG for0.81
  • 1.17xG against1.39

Corners

GaziantepSamsunspor
  • 4.67Corners for3.33
  • 3.33Corners against5.67
  • 8.00Match total9.00
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.533%
  • 33%Over 9.533%
  • 33%Over 10.533%
  • 33%Over 11.50%

Cards

GaziantepSamsunspor
  • 2.67Cards for1.00
  • 2.67Cards against1.67
  • 5.33Match total2.67
  • 100%Over 2.533%
  • 67%Over 3.533%
  • 67%Over 4.533%
  • 67%Over 5.50%
  • 13.33Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
8Kasimpasa6210
9Rizespor6110
10Gaziantep608
11Corum617
12Buyuksehyr6-17
14Erzurumspor6-87
15Konyaspor6-44
16Samsunspor6-64
17Goztep6-43
18Eyupspor6-143
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Süper Lig matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.