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Genk v Waregem, Belgian Pro League, Sat, 23 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 18. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

GenkHome
vKick-off 16:00 UTC
WaregemAway
WDDLWLeague form, oldest to newestDWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Genk have 4 scored home results and Waregem 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Genk at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Waregem away: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Genk scored 2.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Waregem scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 136 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 8 pooled club appearances (37.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Genk: 8 wins; Waregem: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Genk at home and Waregem away.

Genk at home

xG 2.74
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match6.7
  • Goals per match2.8

Waregem away

xG 1.16
  • Shots per match11.8
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 68 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Genk
1.69
Expected goals, Waregem
1.11
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
53%
Both clubs score
55%
Genk score at least once
82%
Waregem score at least once
67%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Genk win–
Draw–
Waregem win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Genk goals, columns are Waregem goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%10%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.66 goals) and away average (1.31 goals).

Sample. Genk 8 matches, Waregem 8, the league 68, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.6%21.4%
2.561.4%38.6%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.517.1%82.9%

First-half goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.6%21.4%
1.540.0%60.0%
2.511.4%88.6%
3.54.3%95.7%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.1%36.9%
9.549.2%50.8%
10.546.2%53.8%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.2%
1.575.4%24.6%
2.563.1%36.9%
3.543.1%56.9%
4.529.2%70.8%
5.520.0%80.0%
6.56.2%93.8%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

8
Genk wins
0
Draws
2
Waregem wins
Goals / meeting
3.80
38 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Genk clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Waregem clean sheets
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.20
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.90
10 with card data
  1. Waregem v GenkSun, 9 Aug 2026 · Belgian Pro League 2026-272–1HT 0–1
  2. Waregem v GenkSat, 17 Jan 2026 · Belgian Pro League 2025-262–1HT 0–0
  3. Genk v WaregemSun, 31 Aug 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2025-263–2HT 2–2
  4. Genk v WaregemSat, 14 Jan 2023 · Belgian Pro League 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  5. Waregem v GenkSun, 14 Aug 2022 · Belgian Pro League 2022-231–4HT 1–3
  6. Genk v WaregemSun, 6 Feb 2022 · Belgian Pro League 2021-222–0HT 1–0
  7. Waregem v GenkSun, 31 Oct 2021 · Belgian Pro League 2021-222–6HT 0–2
  8. Genk v WaregemWed, 27 Jan 2021 · Belgian Pro League 2020-213–2HT 1–0
  9. Waregem v GenkSun, 9 Aug 2020 · Belgian Pro League 2020-211–2HT 1–0
  10. Waregem v GenkSun, 19 Jan 2020 · Belgian Pro League 2019-200–3HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Genk at homeWDWWDW
Waregem awayWWDDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Genk at home, Waregem away
  • 38%
    Both teams scored
    League 41%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.97
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.95
    3 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 63%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 4.2
    Cards per match
    League 3.37
    3 + 4 matches
  • 46%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 43%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 46%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 29%
    3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Genk at home, Waregem away
Genk (home)Waregem (away)
6Position8
WWDWLast 5, oldest to newestDDWL
4Played4
2.50Points per match1.25
75%Win %25%
2.75Scored / match1.00
0.75Conceded / match1.25
3.50Avg total goals2.25
50%Both scored25%
50%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score50%
2.74xG for1.16
0.78xG against1.55

Half by half

GenkWaregem
  • 1.751st half scored / match0.25
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 75%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 75%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Genk at home, Waregem away, this season.

Goals

GenkWaregem
  • 2.75Scored / match1.00
  • 0.75Conceded / match1.25
  • 3.50Match total / match2.25
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 75%Scored 2+50%
  • 50%Conceded 1+50%
  • 25%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 75%Match over 2.550%
  • 50%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

GenkWaregem
  • 17.00Shots for11.75
  • 13.67Shots against12.50
  • 6.67On target for4.50
  • 2.67On target against5.25
  • 16%Shot conversion9%
  • 2.74xG for1.16
  • 0.78xG against1.55

Corners

GenkWaregem
  • 5.00Corners for4.50
  • 7.33Corners against6.50
  • 12.33Match total11.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.5100%
  • 100%Over 9.575%
  • 100%Over 10.575%
  • 100%Over 11.550%

Cards

GenkWaregem
  • 1.67Cards for1.50
  • 3.00Cards against2.25
  • 4.67Match total3.75
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 67%Over 3.525%
  • 67%Over 4.525%
  • 67%Over 5.525%
  • 10.00Fouls committed12.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
4Charleroi7818
5Anderlecht8316
6Genk8412
7Standard7111
8Waregem8111
9Lommel SK8011
10Westerlo7-110
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Belgian Pro League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.