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Gent v St. Gilloise, Belgian Pro League, Fri, 14 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Fri, 14 May 2027

GentHome
vKick-off 16:00 UTC
St. GilloiseAway
WWDWWLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gent have 4 scored home results and St. Gilloise 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gent at home: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches); St. Gilloise away: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gent scored 1.75 per home match (4 measured matches); St. Gilloise scored 3.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 136 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Gent: 0 wins; St. Gilloise: 4 wins; draws: 6.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Gent at home and St. Gilloise away.

Gent at home

xG 1.21
  • Shots per match13.5
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.8

St. Gilloise away

xG 2.22
  • Shots per match17.3
  • On target per match8.5
  • Goals per match3.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 68 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gent
0.61
Expected goals, St. Gilloise
0.89
Most likely score
0-0 (22%)
Three or more goals
19%
Both clubs score
27%
Gent score at least once
45%
St. Gilloise score at least once
59%
Season sample
8 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gent win–
Draw–
St. Gilloise win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gent goals, columns are St. Gilloise goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
022%20%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%12%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.66 goals) and away average (1.31 goals).

Sample. Gent 8 matches, St. Gilloise 7, the league 68, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.6%21.4%
2.561.4%38.6%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.517.1%82.9%

First-half goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.6%21.4%
1.540.0%60.0%
2.511.4%88.6%
3.54.3%95.7%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.1%36.9%
9.549.2%50.8%
10.546.2%53.8%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.2%
1.575.4%24.6%
2.563.1%36.9%
3.543.1%56.9%
4.529.2%70.8%
5.520.0%80.0%
6.56.2%93.8%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Gent wins
6
Draws
4
St. Gilloise wins
Goals / meeting
2.20
22 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Gent clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
St. Gilloise clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.40
10 with card data
  1. Gent v St. GilloiseThu, 21 May 2026 · Belgian Pro League 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  2. St. Gilloise v GentWed, 22 Apr 2026 · Belgian Pro League 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. St. Gilloise v GentSat, 6 Dec 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2025-261–1HT 0–1
  4. Gent v St. GilloiseSat, 9 Aug 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2025-262–3HT 0–1
  5. St. Gilloise v GentSun, 25 May 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2024-253–1HT 1–1
  6. Gent v St. GilloiseSat, 5 Apr 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2024-250–3HT 0–3
  7. Gent v St. GilloiseThu, 26 Dec 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2024-251–3HT 0–1
  8. St. Gilloise v GentSat, 19 Oct 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  9. St. Gilloise v GentSun, 10 Mar 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2023-241–1HT 0–0
  10. Gent v St. GilloiseSun, 26 Nov 2023 · Belgian Pro League 2023-241–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gent at homeWDDWWW
St. Gilloise awayWDWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gent at home, St. Gilloise away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 41%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.97
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 8.1
    Corners per match
    League 9.95
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 63%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.9
    Cards per match
    League 3.37
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 43%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 29%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Gent at home, St. Gilloise away
Gent (home)St. Gilloise (away)
1Position3
WWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWWW
4Played4
3.00Points per match3.00
100%Win %100%
1.75Scored / match3.25
0.50Conceded / match0.75
2.25Avg total goals4.00
50%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
1.21xG for2.22
0.66xG against1.05

Half by half

GentSt. Gilloise
  • 1.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.75
  • 0.752nd half scored / match2.25
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 25%Leading at half-time25%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 75%1st half over 1.550%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 50%Scored in both halves75%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gent at home, St. Gilloise away, this season.

Goals

GentSt. Gilloise
  • 1.75Scored / match3.25
  • 0.50Conceded / match0.75
  • 2.25Match total / match4.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 75%Scored 2+100%
  • 50%Conceded 1+50%
  • 0%Conceded 2+25%
  • 75%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.575%
  • 0%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

GentSt. Gilloise
  • 13.50Shots for17.25
  • 8.75Shots against11.25
  • 5.75On target for8.50
  • 2.50On target against2.75
  • 13%Shot conversion19%
  • 1.21xG for2.22
  • 0.66xG against1.05

Corners

GentSt. Gilloise
  • 5.00Corners for4.75
  • 3.25Corners against3.25
  • 8.25Match total8.00
  • 50%Over 7.575%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 50%Over 9.525%
  • 50%Over 10.525%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

GentSt. Gilloise
  • 1.75Cards for2.00
  • 1.75Cards against2.25
  • 3.50Match total4.25
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 25%Over 3.550%
  • 25%Over 4.550%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 11.50Fouls committed12.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Gent81122
2Club Brugge81521
3St. Gilloise71819
4Charleroi7818
5Anderlecht8316
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Belgian Pro League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.