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Gillingham v Accrington, EFL League Two, Sat, 16 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 25. Sat, 16 Jan 2027

GillinghamHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
AccringtonAway
WWLDWLeague form, oldest to newestLDDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gillingham have 5 scored home results and Accrington 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gillingham at home: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches); Accrington away: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gillingham scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); Accrington scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Gillingham: 5 wins; Accrington: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Gillingham at home and Accrington away.

Gillingham at home

xG 1.16
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match4.4
  • Goals per match1.2

Accrington away

xG 1.26
  • Shots per match14.0
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gillingham
2.03
Expected goals, Accrington
0.84
Most likely score
2-0 (12%)
Three or more goals
55%
Both clubs score
49%
Gillingham score at least once
87%
Accrington score at least once
57%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gillingham win–
Draw–
Accrington win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gillingham goals, columns are Accrington goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
212%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Gillingham 10 matches, Accrington 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Gillingham wins
3
Draws
2
Accrington wins
Goals / meeting
1.90
19 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Gillingham clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Accrington clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.90
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.60
10 with card data
  1. Gillingham v AccringtonMon, 6 Apr 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  2. Accrington v GillinghamSat, 2 Aug 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-261–1HT 0–0
  3. Accrington v GillinghamSat, 15 Mar 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  4. Gillingham v AccringtonSat, 12 Oct 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-251–2HT 0–0
  5. Accrington v GillinghamSat, 13 Jan 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-241–2HT 0–0
  6. Gillingham v AccringtonSat, 12 Aug 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-241–0HT 1–0
  7. Accrington v GillinghamSat, 26 Mar 2022 · EFL League One 2021-221–2HT 0–0
  8. Gillingham v AccringtonSat, 30 Oct 2021 · EFL League One 2021-220–0HT 0–0
  9. Accrington v GillinghamSat, 16 Jan 2021 · EFL League One 2020-210–1HT 0–1
  10. Gillingham v AccringtonTue, 15 Dec 2020 · EFL League One 2020-210–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gillingham at homeLDWWLD
Accrington awayLLLLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gillingham at home, Accrington away
  • 40%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 9.2
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    5 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 5.2
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Gillingham at home, Accrington away
Gillingham (home)Accrington (away)
4Position15
LDWWDLast 5, oldest to newestLLLDD
5Played5
1.60Points per match0.40
40%Win %0%
1.20Scored / match0.80
0.80Conceded / match1.60
2.00Avg total goals2.40
20%Both scored60%
60%Clean sheets20%
40%Failed to score40%
1.16xG for1.26
1.15xG against1.89

Half by half

GillinghamAccrington
  • 0.201st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.201st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.20
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 0%Leading at half-time20%
  • 20%1st half over 0.580%
  • 20%1st half over 1.560%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.540%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 0%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gillingham at home, Accrington away, this season.

Goals

GillinghamAccrington
  • 1.20Scored / match0.80
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.60
  • 2.00Match total / match2.40
  • 60%Scored 1+60%
  • 40%Scored 2+20%
  • 40%Conceded 1+80%
  • 20%Conceded 2+60%
  • 80%Match over 1.580%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

GillinghamAccrington
  • 11.00Shots for14.00
  • 12.00Shots against15.25
  • 4.40On target for3.50
  • 3.20On target against5.00
  • 11%Shot conversion7%
  • 1.16xG for1.26
  • 1.15xG against1.89

Corners

GillinghamAccrington
  • 4.00Corners for4.00
  • 4.20Corners against6.25
  • 8.20Match total10.25
  • 60%Over 7.5100%
  • 40%Over 8.575%
  • 40%Over 9.575%
  • 20%Over 10.525%
  • 20%Over 11.525%

Cards

GillinghamAccrington
  • 2.80Cards for3.25
  • 2.40Cards against2.00
  • 5.20Match total5.25
  • 100%Over 2.575%
  • 80%Over 3.575%
  • 80%Over 4.575%
  • 60%Over 5.550%
  • 11.00Fouls committed13.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Barnet8918
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
6Walsall9615
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.