Gillingham vs Grimsby stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 13. Sat, 24 Oct 2026

vKick-off 14:00 UTC

WWLDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gillingham have 5 scored home results and Grimsby 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gillingham at home: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches); Grimsby away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gillingham scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); Grimsby scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Gillingham: 1 wins; Grimsby: 4 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Gillingham at home and Grimsby away.

Gillingham at home

xG 1.16

Shots per match11.0
On target per match4.4
Goals per match1.2

Grimsby away

xG 1.38

Shots per match13.5
On target per match4.0
Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gillingham: 1.60
Expected goals, Grimsby: 0.84
Most likely score: 1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals: 44%
Both clubs score: 45%
Gillingham score at least once: 80%
Grimsby score at least once: 57%
Season sample: 10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gillingham win–

Draw–

Grimsby win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gillingham goals, columns are Grimsby goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

09%7%3%1%

114%12%5%1%

211%9%4%1%

36%5%2%1%

42%2%1%

51%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Gillingham 10 matches, Grimsby 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.4%	27.6%
2.5	43.1%	56.9%
3.5	26.7%	73.3%
4.5	10.3%	89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	31.0%	69.0%
2.5	7.8%	92.2%
3.5	1.7%	98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	61.5%	38.5%
10.5	47.1%	52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	98.1%	1.9%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	73.1%	26.9%
3.5	56.7%	43.3%
4.5	44.2%	55.8%
5.5	26.0%	74.0%
6.5	12.5%	87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Gillingham wins

Draws

Grimsby wins

Goals / meeting

2.25

18 goals in 8 meetings

Both scored

63%

5 of 8 meetings

Over 1.5

75%

6 of 8 meetings

Over 2.5

25%

2 of 8 meetings

Over 3.5

13%

1 of 8 meetings

Gillingham clean sheets

0 of 8 meetings

Grimsby clean sheets

38%

3 of 8 meetings

Corners / meeting

8.25

8 with corner data

Cards / meeting

4.25

8 with card data

Gillingham v GrimsbySat, 18 Apr 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-261–4HT 0–1
Grimsby v GillinghamSat, 18 Oct 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-261–0HT 0–0
Grimsby v GillinghamTue, 28 Jan 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-251–1HT 0–1
Gillingham v GrimsbyTue, 1 Oct 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-250–1HT 0–1
Gillingham v GrimsbySat, 16 Mar 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-241–1HT 1–1
Grimsby v GillinghamSat, 2 Sept 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-242–0HT 2–0
Gillingham v GrimsbyTue, 14 Feb 2023 · EFL League Two 2022-232–1HT 0–0
Grimsby v GillinghamTue, 13 Sept 2022 · EFL League Two 2022-231–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Gillingham at homeLDWWLD

Sat, 3 Octv Newport County0–0C 3–2 · Y 4–2
Tue, 22 Septv Cambridge1–4C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 19 Septv Bristol Rvs3–0C 2–1 · Y 1–2
Sat, 12 Septv Tranmere2–0C 5–5 · Y 3–2
Sat, 29 Augv Northampton1–1C 4–4 · Y 2–4
Sat, 15 Augv Walsall0–3C 6–9 · Y 4–2

Grimsby awayDDDLLL

Sat, 10 Oct@ Port Vale0–1C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 26 Sept@ Newport County1–2C 3–7 · Y 2–2
Tue, 22 Sept@ Notts County1–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 5 Sept@ Cheltenham2–2C 7–3 · Y 1–1
Tue, 1 Sept@ Accrington2–2C 8–2 · Y 1–4
Sat, 22 Aug@ Walsall0–0C 7–8 · Y 1–1

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Gillingham at home, Grimsby away

40%
Both teams scored
League 53%
5 + 5 matches
80%
Over 0.5 goals
League 91%
5 + 5 matches
70%
Over 1.5 goals
League 73%
5 + 5 matches
50%
Over 2.5 goals
League 43%
5 + 5 matches
20%
Over 3.5 goals
League 26%
5 + 5 matches
0%
Over 4.5 goals
League 10%
5 + 5 matches
2.2
Avg total goals
League 2.48
5 + 5 matches
40%
1st half over 0.5
League 66%
5 + 5 matches
30%
1st half over 1.5
League 31%
5 + 5 matches
9.7
Corners per match
League 10.11
5 + 4 matches
70%
Corners over 8.5
League 66%
5 + 4 matches
70%
Corners over 9.5
League 62%
5 + 4 matches
23%
Corners over 10.5
League 47%
5 + 4 matches
4.2
Cards per match
League 4.09
5 + 4 matches
65%
Cards over 3.5
League 57%
5 + 4 matches
53%
Cards over 4.5
League 44%
5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Gillingham at home, Grimsby away

Gillingham (home)		Grimsby (away)
4	Position	11
LDWWD	Last 5, oldest to newest	DDDLL
5	Played	5
1.60	Points per match	0.60
40%	Win %	0%
1.20	Scored / match	1.00
0.80	Conceded / match	1.40
2.00	Avg total goals	2.40
20%	Both scored	60%
60%	Clean sheets	20%
40%	Failed to score	40%
1.16	xG for	1.38
1.15	xG against	1.29

Half by half

GillinghamGrimsby

0.201st half scored / match0.40
0.201st half conceded / match0.80
1.002nd half scored / match0.60
0.602nd half conceded / match0.60
0%Leading at half-time20%
20%1st half over 0.560%
20%1st half over 1.540%
60%2nd half over 0.560%
60%2nd half over 1.540%
0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gillingham at home, Grimsby away, this season.

Goals

GillinghamGrimsby

1.20Scored / match1.00
0.80Conceded / match1.40
2.00Match total / match2.40
60%Scored 1+60%
40%Scored 2+40%
40%Conceded 1+80%
20%Conceded 2+60%
80%Match over 1.560%
40%Match over 2.560%
0%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

GillinghamGrimsby

11.00Shots for13.50
12.00Shots against11.50
4.40On target for4.00
3.20On target against4.00
11%Shot conversion9%
1.16xG for1.38
1.15xG against1.29

Corners

GillinghamGrimsby

4.00Corners for6.25
4.20Corners against5.00
8.20Match total11.25
60%Over 7.5100%
40%Over 8.5100%
40%Over 9.5100%
20%Over 10.525%
20%Over 11.525%

Cards

GillinghamGrimsby

2.80Cards for1.25
2.40Cards against2.00
5.20Match total3.25
100%Over 2.550%
80%Over 3.550%
80%Over 4.525%
60%Over 5.50%
11.00Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
2	Barnet	8	9	18
3	Crewe	10	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	5	16
5	York	9	6	15
6	Walsall	9	6	15
9	Bristol Rvs	10	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	2	13
12	Newport County	10	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.