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Gosport Borough v Bath City, Southern Football League, Premier Division South, Sat, 30 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Sat, 30 Jan 2027

Gosport BoroughHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Bath CityAway
WDDLWLeague form, oldest to newestLWWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gosport Borough have 6 scored home results and Bath City 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gosport Borough at home: 1.33 points per match (6 measured matches); Bath City away: 1.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gosport Borough scored 1.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Bath City scored 1.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.56 per club appearance across 220 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 10 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Gosport Borough: 1 wins; Bath City: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 110 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gosport Borough
1.01
Expected goals, Bath City
0.97
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
32%
Both clubs score
39%
Gosport Borough score at least once
64%
Bath City score at least once
62%
Season sample
11 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gosport Borough win–
Draw–
Bath City win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gosport Borough goals, columns are Bath City goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
014%13%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%14%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.80 goals) and away average (1.32 goals).

Sample. Gosport Borough 11 matches, Bath City 10, the league 110, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 110 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.3%18.8%
2.558.9%41.1%
3.536.6%63.4%
4.521.4%78.6%

First-half goals · 110 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.9%24.1%
1.537.5%62.5%
2.511.6%88.4%
3.52.7%97.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Gosport Borough wins
0
Draws
0
Bath City wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Gosport Borough clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Bath City clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Bath City v Gosport BoroughSat, 10 Oct 2026 · Southern Football League, Premier Division South 2026-271–2HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gosport Borough at homeLDWWDL
Bath City awayLWDLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gosport Borough at home, Bath City away
  • 79%
    Both teams scored
    League 62%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 79%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 59%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 36%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 8%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 3.12
    6 + 4 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 54%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    6 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Gosport Borough at home, Bath City away
Gosport Borough (home)Bath City (away)
11Position5
DWWDLLast 5, oldest to newestWDLW
6Played4
1.33Points per match1.75
33%Win %50%
1.67Scored / match1.50
1.50Conceded / match1.00
3.17Avg total goals2.50
83%Both scored75%
0%Clean sheets0%
17%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Gosport BoroughBath City
  • 0.501st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.50
  • 1.172nd half scored / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 17%Leading at half-time25%
  • 67%1st half over 0.575%
  • 33%1st half over 1.575%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 83%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 33%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gosport Borough at home, Bath City away, this season.

Goals

Gosport BoroughBath City
  • 1.67Scored / match1.50
  • 1.50Conceded / match1.00
  • 3.17Match total / match2.50
  • 83%Scored 1+75%
  • 33%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+0%
  • 83%Match over 1.575%
  • 50%Match over 2.550%
  • 50%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Southern Football League, Premier Division South matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.