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Grazer AK v SK Sturm Graz, Austrian Bundesliga, Sun, 13 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 16. Sun, 13 Dec 2026

Grazer AKHome
vKick-off 13:30 UTC
SK Sturm GrazAway
DWDDDLeague form, oldest to newestDLWLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Grazer AK have 5 scored home results and SK Sturm Graz 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Grazer AK at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); SK Sturm Graz away: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Grazer AK scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); SK Sturm Graz scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.51 per club appearance across 148 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 74 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Grazer AK
0.66
Expected goals, SK Sturm Graz
1.69
Most likely score
0-1 (16%)
Three or more goals
42%
Both clubs score
39%
Grazer AK score at least once
48%
SK Sturm Graz score at least once
82%
Season sample
11 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Grazer AK win–
Draw–
SK Sturm Graz win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Grazer AK goals, columns are SK Sturm Graz goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%16%14%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%
16%11%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
22%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.85 goals) and away average (1.18 goals).

Sample. Grazer AK 11 matches, SK Sturm Graz 8, the league 74, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 20 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 74 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.584.2%15.8%
2.561.8%38.2%
3.528.9%71.1%
4.517.1%82.9%

First-half goals · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.5%25.5%
1.548.9%51.1%
2.523.4%76.6%
3.56.4%93.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Grazer AK at homeDWDDDD
SK Sturm Graz awayLWLWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Grazer AK at home, SK Sturm Graz away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 85%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.03
    5 + 5 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 49%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Grazer AK at home, SK Sturm Graz away
Grazer AK (home)SK Sturm Graz (away)
11Position7
WDDDDLast 5, oldest to newestDWLLW
5Played5
1.40Points per match1.40
20%Win %40%
1.20Scored / match1.20
1.00Conceded / match1.40
2.20Avg total goals2.60
60%Both scored40%
40%Clean sheets40%
40%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Grazer AKSK Sturm Graz
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 25%Leading at half-time20%
  • 50%1st half over 0.560%
  • 25%1st half over 1.540%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 50%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Grazer AK at home, SK Sturm Graz away, this season.

Goals

Grazer AKSK Sturm Graz
  • 1.20Scored / match1.20
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.40
  • 2.20Match total / match2.60
  • 60%Scored 1+80%
  • 60%Scored 2+40%
  • 60%Conceded 1+60%
  • 40%Conceded 2+40%
  • 60%Match over 1.5100%
  • 60%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5LASK71216
5LASK71216
7SK Sturm Graz8114
8Ried11-412
9Tirol12-912
10Sturm Graz7-111
11Grazer AK11-2110
12A. Lustenau9-49
13Hartberg11-89
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Austrian Bundesliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.