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Gremio v Atletico-MG, Copa do Brasil, Sun, 1 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Semifinals. Sun, 1 Nov 2026

GremioHome
vKick-off 21:30 UTC
Atletico-MGAway
WDWDWLeague form, oldest to newestLDWDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Gremio have 3 scored home results and Atletico-MG 3 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Gremio at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Atletico-MG away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Gremio scored 2.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Atletico-MG scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.06 per club appearance across 300 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Gremio: 5 wins; Atletico-MG: 5 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 150 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Gremio
1.56
Expected goals, Atletico-MG
0.30
Most likely score
1-0 (24%)
Three or more goals
28%
Both clubs score
20%
Gremio score at least once
79%
Atletico-MG score at least once
26%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Gremio win–
Draw–
Atletico-MG win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Gremio goals, columns are Atletico-MG goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
016%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
124%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
219%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
310%3%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.27 goals) and away average (0.86 goals).

Sample. Gremio 6 matches, Atletico-MG 6, the league 150, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 150 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.563.2%36.8%
2.535.5%64.5%
3.517.8%82.2%
4.58.6%91.4%

First-half goals · 150 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.8%38.2%
1.530.3%69.7%
2.58.6%91.4%
3.52.6%97.4%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Gremio wins
0
Draws
5
Atletico-MG wins
Goals / meeting
3.50
35 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Gremio clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Atletico-MG clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Atletico-MG v GremioSun, 16 Aug 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20263–0HT 1–0
  2. Gremio v Atletico-MGThu, 26 Feb 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20262–1HT 0–0
  3. Atletico-MG v GremioSun, 17 Aug 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20251–3
  4. Gremio v Atletico-MGSat, 29 Mar 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20252–1
  5. Atletico-MG v GremioWed, 9 Oct 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20242–1
  6. Gremio v Atletico-MGSun, 1 Sept 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20242–3
  7. Atletico-MG v GremioSun, 26 Nov 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20233–0
  8. Gremio v Atletico-MGSun, 23 Jul 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20231–0
  9. Gremio v Atletico-MGFri, 10 Dec 2021 · Brasileirão Série A 20214–3
  10. Atletico-MG v GremioThu, 4 Nov 2021 · Brasileirão Série A 20212–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Gremio at homeWWWWLD
Atletico-MG awayWDDLLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Gremio at home, Atletico-MG away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 39%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 85%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 63%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 35%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 17%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.13
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 62%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 30%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Gremio at home, Atletico-MG away
Gremio (home)Atletico-MG (away)
3Position7
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestLWD
3Played3
3.00Points per match1.33
100%Win %33%
2.00Scored / match1.00
0.33Conceded / match1.00
2.33Avg total goals2.00
33%Both scored67%
67%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

GremioAtletico-MG
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 67%1st half over 0.533%
  • 33%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Gremio at home, Atletico-MG away, this season.

Goals

GremioAtletico-MG
  • 2.00Scored / match1.00
  • 0.33Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.33Match total / match2.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 67%Scored 2+0%
  • 33%Conceded 1+67%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 67%Match over 1.567%
  • 33%Match over 2.533%
  • 33%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
1Fortaleza7216
2Vasco7715
3Gremio6814
4Palmeiras61113
5Juventude7811
6Atletico GO5311
7Atletico-MG6211
8CRB5810
9Operário-PR5410
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Copa do Brasil matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.