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Greuther Furth v St Pauli, 2. Bundesliga, Sat, 23 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 18. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

Greuther FurthHome
vKick-off 10:00 UTC
St PauliAway
LWLDDLeague form, oldest to newestDLDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Greuther Furth have 3 scored home results and St Pauli 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Greuther Furth at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); St Pauli away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Greuther Furth scored 1.00 per home match (3 measured matches); St Pauli scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.64 per club appearance across 120 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 6 pooled club appearances (83.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Greuther Furth: 4 wins; St Pauli: 3 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Greuther Furth at home and St Pauli away.

Greuther Furth at home

xG 1.35
  • Shots per match12.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.0

St Pauli away

xG 1.44
  • Shots per match9.3
  • On target per match4.3
  • Goals per match1.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 60 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Greuther Furth
1.31
Expected goals, St Pauli
1.38
Most likely score
1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals
50%
Both clubs score
55%
Greuther Furth score at least once
73%
St Pauli score at least once
75%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Greuther Furth win–
Draw–
St Pauli win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Greuther Furth goals, columns are St Pauli goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%9%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%12%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.77 goals) and away average (1.52 goals).

Sample. Greuther Furth 6 matches, St Pauli 6, the league 60, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.2%25.8%
2.562.9%37.1%
3.538.7%61.3%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.579.0%21.0%
1.551.6%48.4%
2.521.0%79.0%
3.511.3%88.7%

Corners · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.576.8%23.2%
9.569.6%30.4%
10.558.9%41.1%

Yellow + red card events · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.2%1.8%
1.592.9%7.1%
2.583.9%16.1%
3.571.4%28.6%
4.551.8%48.2%
5.532.1%67.9%
6.517.9%82.1%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Greuther Furth wins
3
Draws
3
St Pauli wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
30 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Greuther Furth clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
St Pauli clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.60
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.10
10 with card data
  1. St Pauli v Greuther FurthSun, 9 Aug 2026 · 2. Bundesliga 2026-271–1HT 0–0
  2. St Pauli v Greuther FurthSat, 3 Feb 2024 · 2. Bundesliga 2023-243–2HT 2–1
  3. Greuther Furth v St PauliSat, 19 Aug 2023 · 2. Bundesliga 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  4. St Pauli v Greuther FurthSat, 11 Mar 2023 · 2. Bundesliga 2022-232–1HT 1–1
  5. Greuther Furth v St PauliSat, 3 Sept 2022 · 2. Bundesliga 2022-232–2HT 0–1
  6. St Pauli v Greuther FurthSun, 25 Apr 2021 · 2. Bundesliga 2020-212–1HT 1–0
  7. Greuther Furth v St PauliSun, 3 Jan 2021 · 2. Bundesliga 2020-212–1HT 2–0
  8. Greuther Furth v St PauliTue, 28 Jan 2020 · 2. Bundesliga 2019-203–0HT 1–0
  9. St Pauli v Greuther FurthFri, 2 Aug 2019 · 2. Bundesliga 2019-201–3HT 1–2
  10. Greuther Furth v St PauliSun, 19 May 2019 · 2. Bundesliga 2018-192–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Greuther Furth at homeDWLLLD
St Pauli awayLLDLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Greuther Furth at home, St Pauli away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 62%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 63%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 3.28
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 80%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 52%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 9.2
    Corners per match
    League 11.19
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 78%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 70%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.5
    Cards per match
    League 4.61
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 72%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 52%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Greuther Furth at home, St Pauli away
Greuther Furth (home)St Pauli (away)
14Position10
LLDLast 5, oldest to newestDDD
3Played3
0.33Points per match1.00
0%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match1.67
2.00Conceded / match1.67
3.00Avg total goals3.33
67%Both scored100%
0%Clean sheets0%
33%Failed to score0%
1.35xG for1.44
1.09xG against1.42

Half by half

Greuther FurthSt Pauli
  • 1.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 1.331st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 67%1st half over 1.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Greuther Furth at home, St Pauli away, this season.

Goals

Greuther FurthSt Pauli
  • 1.00Scored / match1.67
  • 2.00Conceded / match1.67
  • 3.00Match total / match3.33
  • 67%Scored 1+100%
  • 33%Scored 2+67%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+67%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.567%
  • 33%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

Greuther FurthSt Pauli
  • 12.00Shots for9.33
  • 11.67Shots against14.00
  • 5.00On target for4.33
  • 6.67On target against4.33
  • 8%Shot conversion18%
  • 1.35xG for1.44
  • 1.09xG against1.42

Corners

Greuther FurthSt Pauli
  • 5.00Corners for4.33
  • 3.33Corners against5.67
  • 8.33Match total10.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.567%
  • 0%Over 9.567%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.533%

Cards

Greuther FurthSt Pauli
  • 1.67Cards for3.00
  • 2.00Cards against2.33
  • 3.67Match total5.33
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 67%Over 3.5100%
  • 33%Over 4.5100%
  • 0%Over 5.533%
  • 8.33Fouls committed13.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
8Osnabruck7-38
9Braunschweig707
10St Pauli607
11Bochum6-17
12Hannover7-57
13Darmstadt7-67
14Greuther Furth6-26
15Bielefeld6-25
16Dresden7-65
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for 2. Bundesliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.