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Grimsby v Swindon, EFL League Two, Sat, 27 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sat, 27 Feb 2027

GrimsbyHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
SwindonAway
WWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Grimsby have 5 scored home results and Swindon 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Grimsby at home: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Swindon away: 0.20 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Grimsby scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Swindon scored 0.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 10 pooled club appearances (20.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Grimsby: 2 wins; Swindon: 7 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Grimsby at home and Swindon away.

Grimsby at home

xG 2.27
  • Shots per match17.4
  • On target per match5.6
  • Goals per match1.6

Swindon away

xG 0.62
  • Shots per match7.6
  • On target per match1.6
  • Goals per match0.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Grimsby
1.76
Expected goals, Swindon
0.64
Most likely score
1-0 (16%)
Three or more goals
43%
Both clubs score
39%
Grimsby score at least once
83%
Swindon score at least once
47%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Grimsby win–
Draw–
Swindon win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Grimsby goals, columns are Swindon goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
116%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Grimsby 10 matches, Swindon 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Grimsby wins
1
Draws
7
Swindon wins
Goals / meeting
3.60
36 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
10 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Grimsby clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Swindon clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.80
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.00
10 with card data
  1. Grimsby v SwindonSat, 25 Apr 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-264–0HT 3–0
  2. Swindon v GrimsbySat, 22 Nov 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-262–2HT 2–2
  3. Grimsby v SwindonFri, 18 Apr 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-250–4HT 0–2
  4. Swindon v GrimsbySat, 21 Dec 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-253–1HT 2–0
  5. Grimsby v SwindonSat, 20 Apr 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-242–0HT 0–0
  6. Swindon v GrimsbySat, 30 Sept 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-242–1HT 1–0
  7. Swindon v GrimsbySat, 14 Jan 2023 · EFL League Two 2022-235–0HT 1–0
  8. Grimsby v SwindonSat, 24 Sept 2022 · EFL League Two 2022-231–2HT 1–2
  9. Swindon v GrimsbySat, 22 Feb 2020 · EFL League Two 2019-203–1HT 0–0
  10. Grimsby v SwindonSat, 7 Dec 2019 · EFL League Two 2019-200–3HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Grimsby at homeWDWWLD
Swindon awayLDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Grimsby at home, Swindon away
  • 20%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 13.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 3.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Grimsby at home, Swindon away
Grimsby (home)Swindon (away)
11Position17
WDWWLLast 5, oldest to newestDLLLL
5Played5
2.00Points per match0.20
60%Win %0%
1.60Scored / match0.00
0.80Conceded / match1.80
2.40Avg total goals1.80
40%Both scored0%
60%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score100%
2.27xG for0.62
0.83xG against1.85

Half by half

GrimsbySwindon
  • 1.201st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.401st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.402nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 60%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.540%
  • 60%1st half over 1.520%
  • 40%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 20%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Grimsby at home, Swindon away, this season.

Goals

GrimsbySwindon
  • 1.60Scored / match0.00
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.80
  • 2.40Match total / match1.80
  • 100%Scored 1+0%
  • 60%Scored 2+0%
  • 40%Conceded 1+80%
  • 40%Conceded 2+40%
  • 80%Match over 1.540%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 20%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

GrimsbySwindon
  • 17.40Shots for7.60
  • 8.80Shots against18.60
  • 5.60On target for1.60
  • 2.40On target against6.40
  • 9%Shot conversion0%
  • 2.27xG for0.62
  • 0.83xG against1.85

Corners

GrimsbySwindon
  • 7.60Corners for3.20
  • 5.60Corners against10.60
  • 13.20Match total13.80
  • 100%Over 7.580%
  • 100%Over 8.580%
  • 80%Over 9.580%
  • 80%Over 10.580%
  • 80%Over 11.560%

Cards

GrimsbySwindon
  • 1.60Cards for2.20
  • 3.80Cards against0.20
  • 5.40Match total2.40
  • 80%Over 2.560%
  • 80%Over 3.50%
  • 80%Over 4.50%
  • 80%Over 5.50%
  • 13.80Fouls committed12.40

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Bristol Rvs10-215
10Rochdale10-114
11Grimsby10213
12Newport County10113
13Tranmere10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
19Colchester9-310
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.