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Guaraní v Olimpia, Primera División, Sun, 15 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 19. Sun, 15 Nov 2026

GuaraníHome
vKick-off 22:00 UTC
OlimpiaAway
WDWWDLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Guaraní have 7 scored home results and Olimpia 5 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Guaraní at home: 1.29 points per match (7 measured matches); Olimpia away: 2.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Guaraní scored 1.43 per home match (7 measured matches); Olimpia scored 1.60 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.26 per club appearance across 156 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 12 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Guaraní: 0 wins; Olimpia: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 78 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Guaraní
0.66
Expected goals, Olimpia
1.09
Most likely score
0-1 (19%)
Three or more goals
26%
Both clubs score
32%
Guaraní score at least once
48%
Olimpia score at least once
66%
Season sample
13 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Guaraní win–
Draw–
Olimpia win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Guaraní goals, columns are Olimpia goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
017%19%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.29 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Guaraní 13 matches, Olimpia 12, the league 78, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 78 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.3%23.8%
2.551.2%48.8%
3.518.8%81.3%
4.510.0%90.0%

First-half goals · 78 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.5%27.5%
1.531.3%68.8%
2.55.0%95.0%
3.51.3%98.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Guaraní wins
1
Draws
1
Olimpia wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
4 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Guaraní clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Olimpia clean sheets
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Olimpia v GuaraníWed, 2 Sept 2026 · Primera División 20261–1HT 0–1
  2. Guaraní v OlimpiaSat, 21 Mar 2026 · Primera División, Apertura 20260–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Guaraní at homeWLDWDD
Olimpia awayDWWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Guaraní at home, Olimpia away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 56%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 51%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 51%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 7%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 18%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.51
    7 + 5 matches
  • 93%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 27%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    7 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Guaraní at home, Olimpia away
Guaraní (home)Olimpia (away)
6Position1
LDWDDLast 5, oldest to newestLWWWW
7Played5
1.29Points per match2.40
29%Win %80%
1.43Scored / match1.60
1.29Conceded / match0.80
2.71Avg total goals2.40
86%Both scored40%
14%Clean sheets40%
0%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

GuaraníOlimpia
  • 0.431st half scored / match1.20
  • 0.571st half conceded / match0.20
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.712nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 29%Leading at half-time80%
  • 86%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 14%1st half over 1.540%
  • 86%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 14%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Guaraní at home, Olimpia away, this season.

Goals

GuaraníOlimpia
  • 1.43Scored / match1.60
  • 1.29Conceded / match0.80
  • 2.71Match total / match2.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 43%Scored 2+60%
  • 86%Conceded 1+60%
  • 29%Conceded 2+20%
  • 100%Match over 1.580%
  • 43%Match over 2.560%
  • 14%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primera División matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.