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Guarda FC v Florgrade FC, Campeonato de Portugal, Sun, 24 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sun, 24 Jan 2027

Guarda FCHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Florgrade FCAway
LLLDLLeague form, oldest to newestDWLWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Guarda FC have 2 scored home results and Florgrade FC 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Guarda FC at home: 0.50 points per match (2 measured matches); Florgrade FC away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Guarda FC scored 1.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Florgrade FC scored 0.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.30 per club appearance across 224 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 5 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Guarda FC: 0 wins; Florgrade FC: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 112 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Guarda FC
0.41
Expected goals, Florgrade FC
0.65
Most likely score
0-0 (35%)
Three or more goals
9%
Both clubs score
16%
Guarda FC score at least once
34%
Florgrade FC score at least once
48%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Guarda FC win–
Draw–
Florgrade FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Guarda FC goals, columns are Florgrade FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
035%22%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
23%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.46 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Guarda FC 5 matches, Florgrade FC 5, the league 112, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 22 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 112 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.8%27.2%
2.544.7%55.3%
3.527.2%72.8%
4.512.3%87.7%

First-half goals · 111 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.0%31.0%
1.533.6%66.4%
2.515.0%85.0%
3.54.4%95.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Guarda FC wins
0
Draws
1
Florgrade FC wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Guarda FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Florgrade FC clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Florgrade FC v Guarda FCSun, 23 Aug 2026 · Campeonato de Portugal 2026-271–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Guarda FC at homeLDL
Florgrade FC awayDLWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Guarda FC at home, Florgrade FC away
  • 42%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 45%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.60
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 69%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Guarda FC at home, Florgrade FC away
Guarda FC (home)Florgrade FC (away)
52Position21
LDLast 5, oldest to newestDLL
2Played3
0.50Points per match0.33
0%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match0.33
1.50Conceded / match2.00
2.50Avg total goals2.33
50%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score67%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Guarda FCFlorgrade FC
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.33
  • 1.501st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.33
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 50%1st half over 1.533%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Guarda FC at home, Florgrade FC away, this season.

Goals

Guarda FCFlorgrade FC
  • 1.00Scored / match0.33
  • 1.50Conceded / match2.00
  • 2.50Match total / match2.33
  • 50%Scored 1+33%
  • 50%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+33%
  • 50%Match over 1.567%
  • 50%Match over 2.533%
  • 50%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Campeonato de Portugal matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.