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Guiseley v Emley AFC, Northern Premier League, Premier Division, Sat, 2 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 26. Sat, 2 Jan 2027

GuiseleyHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Emley AFCAway
WWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Guiseley have 5 scored home results and Emley AFC 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Guiseley at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Emley AFC away: 1.00 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Guiseley scored 2.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Emley AFC scored 0.83 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.65 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 11 pooled club appearances (63.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Guiseley: 1 wins; Emley AFC: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Guiseley
2.62
Expected goals, Emley AFC
0.49
Most likely score
2-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
60%
Both clubs score
36%
Guiseley score at least once
93%
Emley AFC score at least once
39%
Season sample
12 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Guiseley win–
Draw–
Emley AFC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Guiseley goals, columns are Emley AFC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
215%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
313%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
49%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
55%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
62%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.72 goals) and away average (1.59 goals).

Sample. Guiseley 12 matches, Emley AFC 12, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 12 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.5%18.5%
2.564.4%35.6%
3.540.7%59.3%
4.524.4%75.6%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.1%25.9%
1.542.2%57.8%
2.515.6%84.4%
3.57.4%92.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Guiseley wins
0
Draws
0
Emley AFC wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Guiseley clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Emley AFC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Emley AFC v GuiseleyMon, 31 Aug 2026 · Northern Premier League, Premier Division 2026-270–4HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Guiseley at homeLWWLWW
Emley AFC awayDWDDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Guiseley at home, Emley AFC away
  • 65%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 65%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 45%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 28%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 24%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 3.31
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 42%
    5 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Guiseley at home, Emley AFC away
Guiseley (home)Emley AFC (away)
3Position19
LWWLWLast 5, oldest to newestWDDLL
5Played6
1.80Points per match1.00
60%Win %17%
2.40Scored / match0.83
1.40Conceded / match1.83
3.80Avg total goals2.67
80%Both scored50%
20%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

GuiseleyEmley AFC
  • 1.401st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.801st half conceded / match1.17
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 60%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 60%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 60%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Guiseley at home, Emley AFC away, this season.

Goals

GuiseleyEmley AFC
  • 2.40Scored / match0.83
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.83
  • 3.80Match total / match2.67
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 60%Scored 2+33%
  • 80%Conceded 1+67%
  • 60%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 100%Match over 2.567%
  • 40%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Cleethorpes Town132330
2Redcar Athletic131728
3Guiseley121425
4Avro FC111325
5Curzon Ashton FC111222
17Stockton Town13-712
18Leek Town12-111
19Emley AFC12-1310
20Bamber Bridge FC12-1510
21Ilkeston Town FC13-247
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Northern Premier League, Premier Division matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.