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Harborough Town FC v Spalding United, National League North, Fri, 26 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 41. Fri, 26 Mar 2027

Harborough Town FCHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Spalding UnitedAway
LLDLWLeague form, oldest to newestWWWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Harborough Town FC have 6 scored home results and Spalding United 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Harborough Town FC at home: 2.17 points per match (6 measured matches); Spalding United away: 1.17 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Harborough Town FC scored 1.33 per home match (6 measured matches); Spalding United scored 1.17 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.39 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 12 pooled club appearances (41.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Harborough Town FC
0.69
Expected goals, Spalding United
0.82
Most likely score
0-0 (22%)
Three or more goals
20%
Both clubs score
28%
Harborough Town FC score at least once
50%
Spalding United score at least once
56%
Season sample
11 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Harborough Town FC win–
Draw–
Spalding United win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Harborough Town FC goals, columns are Spalding United goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
022%18%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%13%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.63 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Harborough Town FC 11 matches, Spalding United 11, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.6%24.4%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.570.4%29.6%
1.532.6%67.4%
2.512.6%87.4%
3.53.7%96.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Harborough Town FC at homeWLDWWW
Spalding United awayLDWLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Harborough Town FC at home, Spalding United away
  • 42%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 8%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 2.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.77
    6 + 6 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Harborough Town FC at home, Spalding United away
Harborough Town FC (home)Spalding United (away)
15Position9
WWLDWLast 5, oldest to newestLDWLL
6Played6
2.17Points per match1.17
67%Win %33%
1.33Scored / match1.17
1.00Conceded / match1.00
2.33Avg total goals2.17
33%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets17%
33%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Harborough Town FCSpalding United
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.17
  • 0.832nd half scored / match1.17
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.83
  • 17%Leading at half-time0%
  • 50%1st half over 0.517%
  • 33%1st half over 1.50%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Harborough Town FC at home, Spalding United away, this season.

Goals

Harborough Town FCSpalding United
  • 1.33Scored / match1.17
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.33Match total / match2.17
  • 67%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 50%Conceded 1+83%
  • 33%Conceded 2+17%
  • 50%Match over 1.567%
  • 50%Match over 2.533%
  • 17%Match over 3.517%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League North matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.