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Hartlepool v Forest Green, National League, Tue, 8 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Tue, 8 Dec 2026

HartlepoolHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Forest GreenAway
LLLLWLeague form, oldest to newestDLDDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Hartlepool have 6 scored home results and Forest Green 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Hartlepool at home: 1.00 points per match (6 measured matches); Forest Green away: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Hartlepool scored 0.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Forest Green scored 1.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 11 pooled club appearances (36.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 7. Hartlepool: 2 wins; Forest Green: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Hartlepool at home and Forest Green away.

Hartlepool at home

  • Shots per match7.7
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match0.7

Forest Green away

  • Shots per match8.0
  • On target per match4.2
  • Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Hartlepool
1.18
Expected goals, Forest Green
1.37
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
47%
Both clubs score
52%
Hartlepool score at least once
69%
Forest Green score at least once
75%
Season sample
13 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Hartlepool win–
Draw–
Forest Green win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Hartlepool goals, columns are Forest Green goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%11%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Hartlepool 13 matches, Forest Green 12, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.560.5%39.5%
3.538.2%61.8%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.2%26.8%
1.533.1%66.9%
2.514.0%86.0%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.564.1%35.9%
9.553.8%46.2%
10.542.8%57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.597.9%2.1%
1.590.3%9.7%
2.577.9%22.1%
3.564.1%35.9%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.529.0%71.0%
6.511.7%88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

7 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Hartlepool wins
2
Draws
3
Forest Green wins
Goals / meeting
2.71
19 goals in 7 meetings
Both scored
71%
5 of 7 meetings
Over 1.5
71%
5 of 7 meetings
Over 2.5
43%
3 of 7 meetings
Over 3.5
29%
2 of 7 meetings
Hartlepool clean sheets
0%
0 of 7 meetings
Forest Green clean sheets
29%
2 of 7 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.50
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
3.00
6 with card data
  1. Forest Green v HartlepoolSat, 10 Oct 2026 · National League 2026-272–4HT 0–1
  2. Hartlepool v Forest GreenSat, 18 Apr 2026 · National League 2025-262–1HT 2–0
  3. Forest Green v HartlepoolSat, 6 Sept 2025 · National League 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  4. Hartlepool v Forest GreenMon, 5 May 2025 · National League 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  5. Forest Green v HartlepoolSat, 28 Sept 2024 · National League 2024-251–0HT 0–0
  6. Forest Green v HartlepoolSat, 9 Apr 2022 · EFL League Two 2021-221–1HT 0–0
  7. Hartlepool v Forest GreenSat, 20 Nov 2021 · EFL League Two 2021-221–3HT 0–3

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Hartlepool at homeWLWLLL
Forest Green awayLWLWDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Hartlepool at home, Forest Green away
  • 38%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 57%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 81%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 28%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 18%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 3.10
    6 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.91
    6 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 55%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 54%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 45%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 43%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 4.3
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    6 + 5 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 64%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 28%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    6 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Hartlepool at home, Forest Green away
Hartlepool (home)Forest Green (away)
20Position16
LWLLLLast 5, oldest to newestWLWDD
6Played5
1.00Points per match1.60
33%Win %40%
0.67Scored / match1.40
1.00Conceded / match1.40
1.67Avg total goals2.80
17%Both scored60%
33%Clean sheets20%
50%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

HartlepoolForest Green
  • 0.171st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.40
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.80
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 17%Leading at half-time40%
  • 50%1st half over 0.580%
  • 0%1st half over 1.520%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 17%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 17%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Hartlepool at home, Forest Green away, this season.

Goals

HartlepoolForest Green
  • 0.67Scored / match1.40
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.40
  • 1.67Match total / match2.80
  • 50%Scored 1+80%
  • 17%Scored 2+40%
  • 67%Conceded 1+80%
  • 17%Conceded 2+40%
  • 33%Match over 1.580%
  • 17%Match over 2.540%
  • 17%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

HartlepoolForest Green
  • 7.67Shots for8.00
  • 8.00Shots against10.20
  • 3.50On target for4.20
  • 4.67On target against5.20
  • 9%Shot conversion18%

Corners

HartlepoolForest Green
  • 5.33Corners for6.00
  • 4.33Corners against5.40
  • 9.67Match total11.40
  • 83%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.580%
  • 50%Over 9.560%
  • 50%Over 10.540%
  • 33%Over 11.540%

Cards

HartlepoolForest Green
  • 1.83Cards for3.20
  • 1.50Cards against2.00
  • 3.33Match total5.20
  • 83%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.5100%
  • 17%Over 4.540%
  • 17%Over 5.540%
  • 16.50Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
14Carlisle13317
15Woking13015
16Forest Green12-315
17Eastleigh13-615
18Tamworth13-914
19Wealdstone13-712
20Hartlepool13-712
21Boston Utd13-812
22Scunthorpe12-610
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.