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Haverfordwest County AFC v The New Saints, Cymru Premier, Fri, 22 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 23. Fri, 22 Jan 2027

Haverfordwest County AFCHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
The New SaintsAway
WLLLLLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Haverfordwest County AFC have 8 scored home results and The New Saints 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Haverfordwest County AFC at home: 1.13 points per match (8 measured matches); The New Saints away: 2.67 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Haverfordwest County AFC scored 0.88 per home match (8 measured matches); The New Saints scored 3.17 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.64 per club appearance across 208 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 14 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Haverfordwest County AFC: 0 wins; The New Saints: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 104 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Haverfordwest County AFC
0.19
Expected goals, The New Saints
2.76
Most likely score
0-2 (20%)
Three or more goals
56%
Both clubs score
16%
Haverfordwest County AFC score at least once
17%
The New Saints score at least once
94%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Haverfordwest County AFC win–
Draw–
The New Saints win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Haverfordwest County AFC goals, columns are The New Saints goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%15%20%19%13%7%3%1%
11%3%4%3%2%1%1%under 1%
2under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.78 goals) and away average (1.51 goals).

Sample. Haverfordwest County AFC 13 matches, The New Saints 13, the league 104, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 104 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.579.2%20.8%
2.560.4%39.6%
3.538.7%61.3%
4.525.5%74.5%

First-half goals · 104 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.5%25.5%
1.539.6%60.4%
2.522.6%77.4%
3.510.4%89.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Haverfordwest County AFC wins
0
Draws
1
The New Saints wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Haverfordwest County AFC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
The New Saints clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. The New Saints v Haverfordwest County AFCFri, 7 Aug 2026 · Cymru Premier 2026-272–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Haverfordwest County AFC at homeLWWWLL
The New Saints awayDWWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Haverfordwest County AFC at home, The New Saints away
  • 44%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 73%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 80%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 65%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 25%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 3.29
    8 + 6 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    8 + 6 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    8 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Haverfordwest County AFC at home, The New Saints away
Haverfordwest County AFC (home)The New Saints (away)
12Position1
WWWLLLast 5, oldest to newestWWWWW
8Played6
1.13Points per match2.67
38%Win %83%
0.88Scored / match3.17
1.50Conceded / match0.67
2.38Avg total goals3.83
38%Both scored50%
13%Clean sheets50%
50%Failed to score17%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Haverfordwest County AFCThe New Saints
  • 0.131st half scored / match1.33
  • 0.381st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.752nd half scored / match1.83
  • 1.132nd half conceded / match0.17
  • 13%Leading at half-time67%
  • 38%1st half over 0.583%
  • 13%1st half over 1.567%
  • 88%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Haverfordwest County AFC at home, The New Saints away, this season.

Goals

Haverfordwest County AFCThe New Saints
  • 0.88Scored / match3.17
  • 1.50Conceded / match0.67
  • 2.38Match total / match3.83
  • 50%Scored 1+83%
  • 25%Scored 2+83%
  • 88%Conceded 1+50%
  • 38%Conceded 2+17%
  • 63%Match over 1.583%
  • 63%Match over 2.567%
  • 13%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Cymru Premier matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.