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HNK Gorica v NK Istra 1961, HNL, Sat, 15 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 35. Sat, 15 May 2027

HNK GoricaHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
NK Istra 1961Away
DLDWLLeague form, oldest to newestDDWLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, HNK Gorica have 5 scored home results and NK Istra 1961 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: HNK Gorica at home: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches); NK Istra 1961 away: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. HNK Gorica scored 0.80 per home match (5 measured matches); NK Istra 1961 scored 1.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.58 per club appearance across 84 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. HNK Gorica: 1 wins; NK Istra 1961: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 42 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, HNK Gorica
0.80
Expected goals, NK Istra 1961
1.45
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
39%
Both clubs score
42%
HNK Gorica score at least once
55%
NK Istra 1961 score at least once
77%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

HNK Gorica win–
Draw–
NK Istra 1961 win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are HNK Gorica goals, columns are NK Istra 1961 goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%15%11%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
23%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.93 goals) and away average (1.24 goals).

Sample. HNK Gorica 9 matches, NK Istra 1961 9, the league 42, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.565.9%34.1%
3.545.5%54.5%
4.522.7%77.3%

First-half goals · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.7%27.3%
1.552.3%47.7%
2.515.9%84.1%
3.56.8%93.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
HNK Gorica wins
0
Draws
0
NK Istra 1961 wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
HNK Gorica clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
NK Istra 1961 clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. NK Istra 1961 v HNK GoricaSat, 19 Sept 2026 · HNL 2026-270–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
HNK Gorica at homeLLDDL
NK Istra 1961 awayDLDWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
HNK Gorica at home, NK Istra 1961 away
  • 68%
    Both teams scored
    League 55%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 67%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 45%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 3.17
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 52%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
HNK Gorica at home, NK Istra 1961 away
HNK Gorica (home)NK Istra 1961 (away)
10Position6
LLDDLLast 5, oldest to newestDLDW
5Played4
0.40Points per match1.25
0%Win %25%
0.80Scored / match1.75
1.60Conceded / match1.50
2.40Avg total goals3.25
60%Both scored75%
20%Clean sheets25%
40%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

HNK GoricaNK Istra 1961
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.801st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.802nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 60%1st half over 0.575%
  • 20%1st half over 1.575%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 0%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

HNK Gorica at home, NK Istra 1961 away, this season.

Goals

HNK GoricaNK Istra 1961
  • 0.80Scored / match1.75
  • 1.60Conceded / match1.50
  • 2.40Match total / match3.25
  • 60%Scored 1+75%
  • 20%Scored 2+75%
  • 80%Conceded 1+75%
  • 80%Conceded 2+50%
  • 80%Match over 1.575%
  • 60%Match over 2.575%
  • 20%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for HNL matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.