Hornchurch vs Hartlepool stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 26. Sat, 2 Jan 2027

vKick-off 15:00 UTC

WLWLWLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Hornchurch have 6 scored home results and Hartlepool 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Hornchurch at home: 2.50 points per match (6 measured matches); Hartlepool away: 0.86 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Hornchurch scored 1.50 per home match (6 measured matches); Hartlepool scored 1.14 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 13 pooled club appearances (38.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Hornchurch at home and Hartlepool away.

Hornchurch at home

Shots per match10.2
On target per match3.8
Goals per match1.5

Hartlepool away

Shots per match7.0
On target per match3.0
Goals per match1.1

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Hornchurch: 1.18
Expected goals, Hartlepool: 0.80
Most likely score: 1-0 (16%)
Three or more goals: 32%
Both clubs score: 38%
Hornchurch score at least once: 69%
Hartlepool score at least once: 55%
Season sample: 13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Hornchurch win–

Draw–

Hartlepool win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Hornchurch goals, columns are Hartlepool goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

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014%11%4%1%

116%13%5%1%

210%8%3%1%

34%3%1%

41%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Hornchurch 13 matches, Hartlepool 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	80.9%	19.1%
2.5	60.5%	39.5%
3.5	38.2%	61.8%
4.5	21.0%	79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73.2%	26.8%
1.5	33.1%	66.9%
2.5	14.0%	86.0%
3.5	4.5%	95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	64.1%	35.9%
9.5	53.8%	46.2%
10.5	42.8%	57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	97.9%	2.1%
1.5	90.3%	9.7%
2.5	77.9%	22.1%
3.5	64.1%	35.9%
4.5	40.0%	60.0%
5.5	29.0%	71.0%
6.5	11.7%	88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Hornchurch at homeWWLWWW

Sat, 10 Octv Eastleigh2–0C ––– · Y –––
Tue, 29 Septv Aldershot2–1C 5–1 · Y 0–2
Sat, 19 Septv Scunthorpe1–0C 6–7 · Y 0–2
Sat, 5 Septv Forest Green0–1C 6–3 · Y 3–1
Fri, 28 Augv Woking1–0C 5–5 · Y 2–2
Sat, 8 Augv Kidderminster3–0C 4–3 · Y 3–1

Hartlepool awayLLLLLW

Sat, 10 Oct@ Forest Green4–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 26 Sept@ Scunthorpe1–4C 5–3 · Y 1–3
Wed, 16 Sept@ Altrincham1–2C 1–8 · Y 5–1
Fri, 11 Sept@ Kidderminster0–2C 3–6 · Y 5–1
Tue, 1 Sept@ Halifax0–1C 7–8 · Y 3–3
Sat, 22 Aug@ Sutton1–2C 5–4 · Y 3–2

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Hornchurch at home, Hartlepool away

37%
Both teams scored
League 63%
6 + 7 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 99%
6 + 7 matches
61%
Over 1.5 goals
League 81%
6 + 7 matches
45%
Over 2.5 goals
League 61%
6 + 7 matches
14%
Over 3.5 goals
League 38%
6 + 7 matches
14%
Over 4.5 goals
League 21%
6 + 7 matches
2.4
Avg total goals
League 3.10
6 + 7 matches
69%
1st half over 0.5
League 74%
6 + 7 matches
38%
1st half over 1.5
League 33%
6 + 7 matches
9.2
Corners per match
League 9.91
5 + 6 matches
63%
Corners over 8.5
League 64%
5 + 6 matches
28%
Corners over 9.5
League 54%
5 + 6 matches
18%
Corners over 10.5
League 43%
5 + 6 matches
4.0
Cards per match
League 4.24
5 + 6 matches
72%
Cards over 3.5
League 64%
5 + 6 matches
33%
Cards over 4.5
League 40%
5 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Hornchurch at home, Hartlepool away

Hornchurch (home)		Hartlepool (away)
9	Position	20
WLWWW	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLLLW
6	Played	7
2.50	Points per match	0.86
83%	Win %	29%
1.50	Scored / match	1.14
0.33	Conceded / match	1.86
1.83	Avg total goals	3.00
17%	Both scored	57%
67%	Clean sheets	14%
17%	Failed to score	29%
–	xG for	–
–	xG against	–

Half by half

HornchurchHartlepool

0.831st half scored / match0.57
0.331st half conceded / match0.86
0.672nd half scored / match0.57
0.002nd half conceded / match1.00
33%Leading at half-time14%
67%1st half over 0.571%
33%1st half over 1.543%
67%2nd half over 0.586%
0%2nd half over 1.529%
33%Scored in both halves14%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Hornchurch at home, Hartlepool away, this season.

Goals

HornchurchHartlepool

1.50Scored / match1.14
0.33Conceded / match1.86
1.83Match total / match3.00
83%Scored 1+71%
50%Scored 2+14%
33%Conceded 1+86%
0%Conceded 2+71%
50%Match over 1.571%
33%Match over 2.557%
0%Match over 3.529%

Shots and xG

HornchurchHartlepool

10.20Shots for7.00
9.00Shots against9.83
3.80On target for3.00
3.20On target against5.17
14%Shot conversion10%

Corners

HornchurchHartlepool

5.20Corners for4.17
3.80Corners against5.17
9.00Match total9.33
60%Over 7.583%
60%Over 8.567%
40%Over 9.517%
20%Over 10.517%
20%Over 11.517%

Cards

HornchurchHartlepool

1.60Cards for3.00
1.60Cards against1.83
3.20Match total4.83
60%Over 2.583%
60%Over 3.583%
0%Over 4.567%
0%Over 5.550%
10.00Fouls committed14.50

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
7	Fylde	13	6	23
8	Barrow	13	6	21
9	Hornchurch	13	-4	21
10	Halifax	13	7	20
11	Kidderminster	13	3	20
18	Tamworth	13	-9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	-7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	-7	12
21	Boston Utd	13	-8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	-6	10

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.