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Hull v Brentford, Premier League, Sun, 25 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 8. Sun, 25 Oct 2026

HullHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
BrentfordAway
WWDDLLeague form, oldest to newestDDDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Hull have 2 scored home results and Brentford 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Hull at home: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Brentford away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Hull scored 1.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Brentford scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 5 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Hull: 2 wins; Brentford: 2 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Hull at home and Brentford away.

Hull at home

xG 0.79
  • Shots per match9.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Brentford away

xG 1.03
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match1.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Hull
0.91
Expected goals, Brentford
1.01
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
30%
Both clubs score
38%
Hull score at least once
60%
Brentford score at least once
64%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Hull win–
Draw–
Brentford win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Hull goals, columns are Brentford goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
015%15%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%13%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Hull 5 matches, Brentford 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Hull wins
2
Draws
2
Brentford wins
Goals / meeting
3.83
23 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
6 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Hull clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Brentford clean sheets
0%
0 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.67
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.17
6 with card data
  1. Hull v BrentfordSat, 1 Feb 2020 · EFL Championship 2019-201–5HT 1–2
  2. Brentford v HullSat, 17 Aug 2019 · EFL Championship 2019-201–1HT 0–0
  3. Brentford v HullSat, 23 Feb 2019 · EFL Championship 2018-195–1HT 3–1
  4. Hull v BrentfordSat, 15 Dec 2018 · EFL Championship 2018-192–0HT 2–0
  5. Brentford v HullSun, 6 May 2018 · EFL Championship 2017-181–1HT 1–1
  6. Hull v BrentfordSat, 9 Dec 2017 · EFL Championship 2017-183–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Hull at homeWDDWWD
Brentford awayDWDDWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Hull at home, Brentford away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 7.0
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Hull at home, Brentford away
Hull (home)Brentford (away)
10Position4
WDLast 5, oldest to newestDDD
2Played3
2.00Points per match1.00
50%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match1.67
0.00Conceded / match1.67
1.00Avg total goals3.33
0%Both scored100%
100%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score0%
0.79xG for1.03
1.88xG against1.59

Half by half

HullBrentford
  • 1.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 50%Leading at half-time33%
  • 50%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 50%1st half over 1.567%
  • 0%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Hull at home, Brentford away, this season.

Goals

HullBrentford
  • 1.00Scored / match1.67
  • 0.00Conceded / match1.67
  • 1.00Match total / match3.33
  • 50%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+67%
  • 0%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+67%
  • 50%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.567%
  • 0%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

HullBrentford
  • 9.50Shots for15.00
  • 17.00Shots against16.00
  • 4.00On target for3.50
  • 3.00On target against6.00
  • 11%Shot conversion10%
  • 0.79xG for1.03
  • 1.88xG against1.59

Corners

HullBrentford
  • 2.00Corners for3.50
  • 5.00Corners against3.50
  • 7.00Match total7.00
  • 0%Over 7.550%
  • 0%Over 8.550%
  • 0%Over 9.550%
  • 0%Over 10.550%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

HullBrentford
  • 2.00Cards for2.50
  • 0.50Cards against2.50
  • 2.50Match total5.00
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.5100%
  • 0%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.550%
  • 10.00Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
5Chelsea6210
6Leeds639
8Everton539
9Ipswich6-39
10Hull528
11Newcastle508
12Man United606
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.