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Ibiza v Alcorcon, Primera Federación, Sun, 4 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 31. Sun, 4 Apr 2027

IbizaHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
AlcorconAway
WWLWDLeague form, oldest to newestDDWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ibiza have 4 scored home results and Alcorcon 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ibiza at home: 1.75 points per match (4 measured matches); Alcorcon away: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ibiza scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Alcorcon scored 1.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 238 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Ibiza: 2 wins; Alcorcon: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 119 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ibiza
0.95
Expected goals, Alcorcon
1.28
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
39%
Both clubs score
44%
Ibiza score at least once
62%
Alcorcon score at least once
72%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ibiza win–
Draw–
Alcorcon win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ibiza goals, columns are Alcorcon goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%14%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%13%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.50 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Ibiza 6 matches, Alcorcon 6, the league 119, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 119 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.570.2%29.8%
2.546.3%53.7%
3.528.9%71.1%
4.514.9%85.1%

First-half goals · 119 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.3%34.7%
1.531.4%68.6%
2.511.6%88.4%
3.55.8%94.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Ibiza wins
0
Draws
0
Alcorcon wins
Goals / meeting
5.00
10 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Ibiza clean sheets
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Alcorcon clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
6.50
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
1.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Ibiza v AlcorconSat, 8 Jan 2022 · La Liga 2 2021-226–2HT 2–2
  2. Alcorcon v IbizaMon, 1 Nov 2021 · La Liga 2 2021-220–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ibiza at homeLWWWLD
Alcorcon awayLDDDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ibiza at home, Alcorcon away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 46%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 29%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.64
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ibiza at home, Alcorcon away
Ibiza (home)Alcorcon (away)
11Position13
WWLDLast 5, oldest to newestDDWL
4Played4
1.75Points per match1.25
50%Win %25%
1.25Scored / match1.25
1.00Conceded / match1.25
2.25Avg total goals2.50
50%Both scored75%
25%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

IbizaAlcorcon
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.752nd half scored / match0.75
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.25
  • 50%Leading at half-time25%
  • 50%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ibiza at home, Alcorcon away, this season.

Goals

IbizaAlcorcon
  • 1.25Scored / match1.25
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.25
  • 2.25Match total / match2.50
  • 75%Scored 1+75%
  • 50%Scored 2+50%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+25%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 25%Match over 2.550%
  • 0%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Mirandes6210
10Racing de Ferrol6210
11Ibiza6110
12Hércules CF6010
13Alcorcon659
14Real Jaén629
15Real Murcia529
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primera Federación matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.