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Inter v Sassuolo, Serie A, Sun, 3 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 17. Sun, 3 Jan 2027

InterHome
vKick-off 11:30 UTC
SassuoloAway
WWWDWLeague form, oldest to newestLWDWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Giuseppe Meazza Stadium. Photo: Prelvini, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Inter have 4 scored home results and Sassuolo 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Inter at home: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Sassuolo away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Inter scored 3.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Sassuolo scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 7 pooled club appearances (85.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Inter: 7 wins; Sassuolo: 3 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Inter at home and Sassuolo away.

Inter at home

xG 2.67
  • Shots per match23.0
  • On target per match8.3
  • Goals per match3.8

Sassuolo away

xG 1.97
  • Shots per match19.0
  • On target per match7.3
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Inter
3.96
Expected goals, Sassuolo
1.54
Most likely score
3-1 (7%)
Three or more goals
91%
Both clubs score
77%
Inter score at least once
98%
Sassuolo score at least once
79%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Inter win–
Draw–
Sassuolo win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Inter goals, columns are Sassuolo goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
0under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
12%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
23%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
62%4%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Inter 6 matches, Sassuolo 5, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

7
Inter wins
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo wins
Goals / meeting
3.20
32 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Inter clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Sassuolo clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.10
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.80
10 with card data
  1. Sassuolo v InterSun, 8 Feb 2026 · Serie A 2025-260–5HT 0–2
  2. Inter v SassuoloSun, 21 Sept 2025 · Serie A 2025-262–1HT 1–0
  3. Sassuolo v InterSat, 4 May 2024 · Serie A 2023-241–0HT 1–0
  4. Inter v SassuoloWed, 27 Sept 2023 · Serie A 2023-241–2HT 1–0
  5. Inter v SassuoloSat, 13 May 2023 · Serie A 2022-234–2HT 1–0
  6. Sassuolo v InterSat, 8 Oct 2022 · Serie A 2022-231–2HT 0–1
  7. Inter v SassuoloSun, 20 Feb 2022 · Serie A 2021-220–2HT 0–2
  8. Sassuolo v InterSat, 2 Oct 2021 · Serie A 2021-221–2HT 1–0
  9. Inter v SassuoloWed, 7 Apr 2021 · Serie A 2020-212–1HT 1–0
  10. Sassuolo v InterSat, 28 Nov 2020 · Serie A 2020-210–3HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Inter at homeWDWWWW
Sassuolo awayLLLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Inter at home, Sassuolo away
  • 88%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 38%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 11.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.0
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Inter at home, Sassuolo away
Inter (home)Sassuolo (away)
1Position10
WWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDL
4Played3
3.00Points per match0.33
100%Win %0%
3.75Scored / match1.33
1.50Conceded / match2.00
5.25Avg total goals3.33
75%Both scored100%
25%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
2.67xG for1.97
1.52xG against1.41

Half by half

InterSassuolo
  • 1.501st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.33
  • 2.252nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.67
  • 25%Leading at half-time33%
  • 75%1st half over 0.567%
  • 75%1st half over 1.50%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 75%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 50%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Inter at home, Sassuolo away, this season.

Goals

InterSassuolo
  • 3.75Scored / match1.33
  • 1.50Conceded / match2.00
  • 5.25Match total / match3.33
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+33%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+100%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 100%Match over 2.5100%
  • 75%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

InterSassuolo
  • 23.00Shots for19.00
  • 9.67Shots against16.67
  • 8.33On target for7.33
  • 5.00On target against6.00
  • 17%Shot conversion7%
  • 2.67xG for1.97
  • 1.52xG against1.41

Corners

InterSassuolo
  • 7.67Corners for5.33
  • 3.00Corners against7.00
  • 10.67Match total12.33
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 67%Over 8.567%
  • 67%Over 9.567%
  • 67%Over 10.567%
  • 33%Over 11.567%

Cards

InterSassuolo
  • 1.33Cards for0.67
  • 1.67Cards against2.33
  • 3.00Match total3.00
  • 67%Over 2.567%
  • 33%Over 3.567%
  • 0%Over 4.533%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 7.00Fouls committed8.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Inter61016
2Roma51113
3Lazio5513
8Como5310
9Frosinone6210
10Sassuolo507
11Atalanta5-26
12Lecce5-56
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.