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Kampala City v Maroons, Uganda Premier League, Wed, 4 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 10. Wed, 4 Nov 2026

Kampala CityHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
MaroonsAway
LLDWWLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Kampala City have 2 scored home results and Maroons 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Kampala City at home: 1.50 points per match (2 measured matches); Maroons away: 1.50 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Kampala City scored 0.50 per home match (2 measured matches); Maroons scored 1.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.01 per club appearance across 82 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 4 pooled club appearances (25.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 41 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Kampala City
0.56
Expected goals, Maroons
1.04
Most likely score
0-1 (21%)
Three or more goals
22%
Both clubs score
28%
Kampala City score at least once
43%
Maroons score at least once
65%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Kampala City win–
Draw–
Maroons win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Kampala City goals, columns are Maroons goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
020%21%11%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%12%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
23%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.20 goals) and away average (0.83 goals).

Sample. Kampala City 5 matches, Maroons 5, the league 41, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 41 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.555.8%44.2%
2.539.5%60.5%
3.516.3%83.7%
4.59.3%90.7%

First-half goals · 41 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.553.5%46.5%
1.525.6%74.4%
2.511.6%88.4%
3.54.7%95.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Kampala City at homeLW
Maroons awayWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Kampala City at home, Maroons away
  • 25%
    Both teams scored
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 85%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 39%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 15%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 7%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.02
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 54%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 24%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Kampala City at home, Maroons away
Kampala City (home)Maroons (away)
8Position10
LWLast 5, oldest to newestWL
2Played2
1.50Points per match1.50
50%Win %50%
0.50Scored / match1.50
1.00Conceded / match1.00
1.50Avg total goals2.50
0%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Kampala CityMaroons
  • 0.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 0%Leading at half-time50%
  • 50%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Kampala City at home, Maroons away, this season.

Goals

Kampala CityMaroons
  • 0.50Scored / match1.50
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 1.50Match total / match2.50
  • 50%Scored 1+50%
  • 0%Scored 2+50%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+0%
  • 50%Match over 1.550%
  • 0%Match over 2.550%
  • 0%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
6Kitara FC428
7Police FC5-17
8Kampala City5-27
9Vipers SC366
10Maroons526
11Lugazi FC5-56
12UPDF405
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Uganda Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.