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Kidderminster v Southend, National League, Sat, 6 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 37. Sat, 6 Mar 2027

KidderminsterHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
SouthendAway
DLLDDLeague form, oldest to newestWLDWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Kidderminster have 7 scored home results and Southend 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Kidderminster at home: 1.71 points per match (7 measured matches); Southend away: 2.14 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Kidderminster scored 1.00 per home match (7 measured matches); Southend scored 2.57 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 10 of 14 pooled club appearances (71.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Kidderminster: 1 wins; Southend: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Kidderminster at home and Southend away.

Kidderminster at home

  • Shots per match7.3
  • On target per match3.4
  • Goals per match1.0

Southend away

  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match5.7
  • Goals per match2.6

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Kidderminster
1.18
Expected goals, Southend
1.30
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
45%
Both clubs score
50%
Kidderminster score at least once
69%
Southend score at least once
73%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Kidderminster win–
Draw–
Southend win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Kidderminster goals, columns are Southend goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%11%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%13%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Kidderminster 13 matches, Southend 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.560.5%39.5%
3.538.2%61.8%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.2%26.8%
1.533.1%66.9%
2.514.0%86.0%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.564.1%35.9%
9.553.8%46.2%
10.542.8%57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.597.9%2.1%
1.590.3%9.7%
2.577.9%22.1%
3.564.1%35.9%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.529.0%71.0%
6.511.7%88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Kidderminster wins
0
Draws
2
Southend wins
Goals / meeting
3.33
10 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
100%
3 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Kidderminster clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Southend clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.00
1 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
3.00
3 with card data
  1. Southend v KidderminsterFri, 28 Aug 2026 · National League 2026-271–3HT 1–0
  2. Kidderminster v SouthendSat, 23 Dec 2023 · National League 2023-241–2HT 1–2
  3. Southend v KidderminsterSat, 2 Sept 2023 · National League 2023-242–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Kidderminster at homeDDWWLD
Southend awayWDDWDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Kidderminster at home, Southend away
  • 71%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 79%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 81%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 36%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 29%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 3.10
    7 + 7 matches
  • 86%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 36%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 8.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.91
    7 + 6 matches
  • 62%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 55%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 54%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 39%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 43%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 5.2
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    7 + 6 matches
  • 69%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 64%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 61%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    7 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Kidderminster at home, Southend away
Kidderminster (home)Southend (away)
11Position3
DWWLDLast 5, oldest to newestDDWDW
7Played7
1.71Points per match2.14
43%Win %57%
1.00Scored / match2.57
0.57Conceded / match1.14
1.57Avg total goals3.71
43%Both scored100%
43%Clean sheets0%
14%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

KidderminsterSouthend
  • 0.711st half scored / match1.71
  • 0.141st half conceded / match0.57
  • 0.292nd half scored / match0.86
  • 0.432nd half conceded / match0.57
  • 57%Leading at half-time57%
  • 71%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 14%1st half over 1.557%
  • 71%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.529%
  • 14%Scored in both halves43%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Kidderminster at home, Southend away, this season.

Goals

KidderminsterSouthend
  • 1.00Scored / match2.57
  • 0.57Conceded / match1.14
  • 1.57Match total / match3.71
  • 86%Scored 1+100%
  • 14%Scored 2+71%
  • 57%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+14%
  • 57%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.571%
  • 0%Match over 3.557%

Shots and xG

KidderminsterSouthend
  • 7.29Shots for10.50
  • 5.29Shots against9.33
  • 3.43On target for5.67
  • 2.86On target against5.00
  • 14%Shot conversion25%

Corners

KidderminsterSouthend
  • 4.29Corners for4.17
  • 3.86Corners against5.00
  • 8.14Match total9.17
  • 57%Over 7.567%
  • 57%Over 8.567%
  • 43%Over 9.567%
  • 29%Over 10.550%
  • 14%Over 11.517%

Cards

KidderminsterSouthend
  • 3.14Cards for2.17
  • 3.00Cards against2.00
  • 6.14Match total4.17
  • 86%Over 2.583%
  • 71%Over 3.567%
  • 71%Over 4.550%
  • 71%Over 5.517%
  • 14.57Fouls committed11.17

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Boreham Wood132135
2Harrogate131228
3Southend131227
4Yeovil131725
5Worthing13924
9Hornchurch13-421
10Halifax13720
11Kidderminster13320
12Aldershot13218
13Sutton13-418
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.