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LDU v Macará, LigaPro Serie A, Sun, 25 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 4. Sun, 25 Oct 2026

LDUHome
vKick-off 20:00 UTC
MacaráAway
LDWDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, LDU have 15 scored home results and Macará 15 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: LDU at home: 1.67 points per match (15 measured matches); Macará away: 1.60 points per match (15 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. LDU scored 1.00 per home match (15 measured matches); Macará scored 1.33 away (15). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.14 per club appearance across 496 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 14 of 30 pooled club appearances (46.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. LDU: 0 wins; Macará: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 248 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, LDU
1.09
Expected goals, Macará
0.91
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
32%
Both clubs score
40%
LDU score at least once
66%
Macará score at least once
60%
Season sample
30 and 29 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

LDU win–
Draw–
Macará win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are LDU goals, columns are Macará goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
013%12%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.30 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. LDU 30 matches, Macará 29, the league 248, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 248 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.565.6%34.4%
2.540.8%59.2%
3.517.6%82.4%
4.59.6%90.4%

First-half goals · 248 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.2%34.8%
1.526.4%73.6%
2.58.4%91.6%
3.52.4%97.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
LDU wins
0
Draws
2
Macará wins
Goals / meeting
1.50
3 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
LDU clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Macará clean sheets
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Macará v LDUSun, 5 Jul 2026 · LigaPro Serie A 20261–0HT 1–0
  2. LDU v MacaráSun, 1 Mar 2026 · LigaPro Serie A 20260–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
LDU at homeWWDDWW
Macará awayWLLWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
LDU at home, Macará away
  • 47%
    Both teams scored
    League 48%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 73%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 37%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 41%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 7%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 17%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 3%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 2.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.29
    15 + 15 matches
  • 73%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 26%
    15 + 15 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
LDU at home, Macará away
LDU (home)Macará (away)
5Position2
LWDDWLast 5, oldest to newestWLWLW
15Played15
1.67Points per match1.60
47%Win %47%
1.00Scored / match1.33
0.80Conceded / match1.07
1.80Avg total goals2.40
33%Both scored60%
40%Clean sheets27%
40%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

LDUMacará
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.401st half conceded / match0.53
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match0.53
  • 27%Leading at half-time47%
  • 67%1st half over 0.580%
  • 7%1st half over 1.533%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 7%Scored in both halves27%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

LDU at home, Macará away, this season.

Goals

LDUMacará
  • 1.00Scored / match1.33
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.07
  • 1.80Match total / match2.40
  • 60%Scored 1+80%
  • 33%Scored 2+40%
  • 60%Conceded 1+73%
  • 20%Conceded 2+27%
  • 67%Match over 1.580%
  • 27%Match over 2.547%
  • 0%Match over 3.513%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for LigaPro Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.