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Leça FC v USC Paredes, Liga 3, Sun, 13 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 12. Sun, 13 Dec 2026

Leça FCHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
USC ParedesAway
LWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Leça FC have 3 scored home results and USC Paredes 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Leça FC at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); USC Paredes away: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Leça FC scored 1.00 per home match (3 measured matches); USC Paredes scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.21 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Leça FC: 1 wins; USC Paredes: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Leça FC
1.59
Expected goals, USC Paredes
1.81
Most likely score
1-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
66%
Both clubs score
67%
Leça FC score at least once
80%
USC Paredes score at least once
84%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Leça FC win–
Draw–
USC Paredes win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Leça FC goals, columns are USC Paredes goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%6%5%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%
15%10%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%8%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
32%4%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.09 goals).

Sample. Leça FC 6 matches, USC Paredes 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 20 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.565.5%34.5%
2.546.6%53.4%
3.527.6%72.4%
4.513.8%86.2%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.527.6%72.4%
2.515.5%84.5%
3.55.2%94.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Leça FC wins
0
Draws
0
USC Paredes wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Leça FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
USC Paredes clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. USC Paredes v Leça FCSun, 23 Aug 2026 · Liga 3 2026-271–2HT 1–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Leça FC at homeDLW
USC Paredes awayWWWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Leça FC at home, USC Paredes away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 87%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.43
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 27%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Leça FC at home, USC Paredes away
Leça FC (home)USC Paredes (away)
4Position2
DLWLast 5, oldest to newestWWD
3Played3
1.33Points per match2.33
33%Win %67%
1.00Scored / match1.67
1.33Conceded / match1.00
2.33Avg total goals2.67
33%Both scored33%
33%Clean sheets67%
33%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Leça FCUSC Paredes
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.672nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 33%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 33%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Leça FC at home, USC Paredes away, this season.

Goals

Leça FCUSC Paredes
  • 1.00Scored / match1.67
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.33Match total / match2.67
  • 67%Scored 1+100%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+33%
  • 33%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.533%
  • 33%Match over 2.533%
  • 0%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Belenenses61116
2USC Paredes6413
3Atletico CP5510
4Leça FC6110
5AD Marco 096110
6Varzim SC539
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Liga 3 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.