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Lecce v Genoa, Serie A, Sun, 1 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 10. Sun, 1 Nov 2026

LecceHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
GenoaAway
WLLWLLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Via del Mare. Photo: ParisTaras, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Lecce have 2 scored home results and Genoa 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Lecce at home: 1.50 points per match (2 measured matches); Genoa away: 0.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Lecce scored 1.50 per home match (2 measured matches); Genoa scored 0.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 4 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Lecce: 2 wins; Genoa: 3 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Lecce at home and Genoa away.

Lecce at home

xG 0.94
  • Shots per match7.0
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.5

Genoa away

xG 0.64
  • Shots per match10.0
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match0.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Lecce
1.34
Expected goals, Genoa
1.07
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
43%
Both clubs score
49%
Lecce score at least once
74%
Genoa score at least once
66%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Lecce win–
Draw–
Genoa win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Lecce goals, columns are Genoa goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%9%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Lecce 5 matches, Genoa 6, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Lecce wins
3
Draws
3
Genoa wins
Goals / meeting
1.88
15 goals in 8 meetings
Both scored
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Over 3.5
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Lecce clean sheets
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Genoa clean sheets
25%
2 of 8 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.88
8 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.75
8 with card data
  1. Lecce v GenoaSun, 24 May 2026 · Serie A 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Genoa v LecceSat, 23 Aug 2025 · Serie A 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. Genoa v LecceFri, 14 Mar 2025 · Serie A 2024-252–1HT 2–0
  4. Lecce v GenoaSun, 5 Jan 2025 · Serie A 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  5. Genoa v LecceSun, 28 Jan 2024 · Serie A 2023-242–1HT 0–1
  6. Lecce v GenoaFri, 22 Sept 2023 · Serie A 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  7. Genoa v LecceSun, 19 Jul 2020 · Serie A 2019-202–1HT 1–0
  8. Lecce v GenoaSun, 8 Dec 2019 · Serie A 2019-202–2HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Lecce at homeLDLWLW
Genoa awayDDLLLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Lecce at home, Genoa away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 6.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Lecce at home, Genoa away
Lecce (home)Genoa (away)
12Position16
LWLast 5, oldest to newestLL
2Played2
1.50Points per match0.00
50%Win %0%
1.50Scored / match0.50
3.00Conceded / match1.50
4.50Avg total goals2.00
50%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score50%
0.94xG for0.64
2.87xG against1.04

Half by half

LecceGenoa
  • 1.501st half scored / match0.00
  • 2.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 100%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Lecce at home, Genoa away, this season.

Goals

LecceGenoa
  • 1.50Scored / match0.50
  • 3.00Conceded / match1.50
  • 4.50Match total / match2.00
  • 50%Scored 1+50%
  • 50%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 100%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.550%
  • 100%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

LecceGenoa
  • 7.00Shots for10.00
  • 17.00Shots against10.00
  • 3.00On target for3.00
  • 9.50On target against2.00
  • 21%Shot conversion5%
  • 0.94xG for0.64
  • 2.87xG against1.04

Corners

LecceGenoa
  • 3.00Corners for3.50
  • 3.50Corners against3.00
  • 6.50Match total6.50
  • 50%Over 7.50%
  • 50%Over 8.50%
  • 50%Over 9.50%
  • 0%Over 10.50%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

LecceGenoa
  • 1.50Cards for2.50
  • 0.50Cards against2.00
  • 2.00Match total4.50
  • 0%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.550%
  • 0%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.550%
  • 11.50Fouls committed10.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10Sassuolo507
11Atalanta5-26
12Lecce5-56
13Udinese5-34
14Torino5-34
15Monza5-44
16Genoa6-64
17Parma6-64
18Fiorentina6-74
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.